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China is Preparing a Pearl Harbor Style Attack 

YOWUSA.COM, 28-July-02
Marshall Masters 

…Continued

Surprise is the Key Element

At some point, China will make its move against the Anglo navy off its shores and when it does the first and most important target will be an American aircraft carrier like the Kitty Hawk.

Knowing their own relative strengths and weaknesses, the Chinese have adopted the a Cold War Soviet naval doctrine called the "battle of the first salvo."  Like the Chinese, the Soviets also understood the need to destroy America's carriers at the outset of any widespread conflict and their doctrine is based upon a speedy and sudden surprise attack.   But this is not a new idea. 

Attack on Pearl HarborWhen the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 their designated primary targets were not the battleships, which were nonetheless important.  Their primary targets were the aircraft carriers Enterprise and Lexington, then operating from Pearl Harbor.

At the time of the attack, the Enterprise was about 200 miles west of Pearl and steaming towards Hawaii and the Lexington was 400 miles to the west of Hawaii and steaming towards Midway.

Had the Japanese been able to destroy the Enterprise the Lexington during their attack on Pearl Harbor, they would have also invaded the Hawaiian Islands as well, putting America's west coast within relative striking distance. 

While the Japanese were able to achieve the element of surprise and inflict great damage, the attack would eventually prove to be a failure.  Perhaps it was this sense of failure that drove the Japanese to take great risks, which in turn cost them four of their own carriers at the Battle of Midway, which turned the tide of war in favor of the Americans.

In terms of creating the element of surprise, we can expect many of the same moves from the Chinese that we experience prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor, beginning with deceitful peace initiatives. 

Several months prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Japanese began talking about peace and misled many Americans into thinking that their intentions were genuine even as their naval armada sailed towards Japan's "Day of Infamy." 

China's Coming Day of Infamy

While some will naturally assume that a heavy amount of saber rattling would precede any surprise attack that is Western thinking at work.  Therefore, what we can expect from the Chinese is a long period of relative peaceful political quiescence and gratuitous co-operation instead.  This is Eastern thinking and this fact should not be swept under the table for the sake of being politically correct.  This is simply the way of the world and unless we are prepared to embrace that concept, we will be caught by surprise again.  

It is likely that when the attack comes, most of our naval forces will already be tied up in the Gulf and Mediterranean and series of small skirmishes between mainland China and Taiwan will necessitate the presence of the Kitty Hawk in the waters near China.  That is when the attack will come. It will be violent, sudden and without provocation.  With the destruction of the Kitty Hawk and the American fleet in disarray, the Chinese will capitalize on their momentum and move to seize Taiwan.   

In addition to invading Taiwan, China will also move to block America's ability to quickly bolster its forces in the Pacific by destroying the key "anchor ports" of the Panama Canal.

The New American, February 12, 2001
Red Dragon Over Panama

Hutchison Whampoa, a Hong Kong- based company closely tied to Beijing, now operates the Canal's "anchor ports." Hutchison is a partner with the notorious China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO), the merchant marine of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA).

Many have commented about the crucial military role played by the Canal in supporting our forward-deployed forces. However, there are strategic implications to the Canal's commercial use as well. Every year, more than 190 million tons of cargo pass through the Canal; grain exports from the American Midwest to the Far East alone account for 23 percent of all traffic through the Canal. Imagine what would happen to our current transportation system if the Canal were shut down and even a portion of its current traffic had to be routed across the continental United States. The gridlock would virtually shut down our harbors, highways, and railroads.

In addition to these steps, China will also move to further wreck the American economy by flooding the world market with the billions of US Treasury bonds they've purchased from Japan. This possibility is within reason, given that both China and Japan have just recently abandoned the US dollar as their reserve currency in favor of the Euro. 

Therefore, the issue is not whether we will come to Taiwan's defense.  Rather, the issue is will we come to our own economic defense with Taiwan representing an important outpost of democracy and free markets.  All idealism aside, the bottom line is: Can America willingly accept the role of suckling China's hind teat after they insult us with Pearl Harbor style surprise attack? 

Regardless of what the dovish talking heads are saying on television these days, the American government is not about to be caught with its pants down again.   

First Time Shame on You

The Irish have an old saying, "The first time shame on you.  The second time, shame on me."   After the attack on Pearl Harbor, America woke up to the need to actively prevent the possibility of such another attack.  Keep in mind that had the Japanese destroyed the carriers Enterprise and Lexington during their attack on Pearl Harbor, they would have invaded Hawaii and then eventually California. 

Consequently, our carriers are our first line of defense and knowing what kinds of weapons could be used against them is important. 

Torpedoes represent one of the most deadly threats to our carriers and Russia's Shkval supercavitating torpedo is perhaps the deadliest.  A man by the name of Edmond Pope, was buying information on the open market about and came very close to spending the rest of his natural life wasting away in Lefortovo prison after being arrested for espionage by the Russian Federal Security Service (Its acronym—FSB—stands for the  Russian equivalent of "Federal Secret Service," namely "Federal'naya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti.")  

Why did the FSB arrest him? If you read the details surrounding his arrest for gathering information about the Shkval torpedo, the facts quickly become patently obvious. 

Albion Monitor, December 10, 2000
Soviet-Style Show Trial Sends Warning to U.S

Edmond PopeIn a chilling reminder of the Cold War, a Russian court sentenced a former U.S. naval intelligence officer last week to 20 years hard labor for espionage.

Edmond Pope, now a 54-year old businessman, was arrested in Moscow by the Russian security service, FSB (formerly KGB), as he was buying plans from a Russian scientist for a revolutionary torpedo known as 'Shkval,' or 'Squall.' The seven-week trial was the usual travesty one expects from Russia's judicial system, a holdover from Soviet days when anyone accused by the state was found automatically guilty by the rubber-stamp courts.

The real purpose of the trial was to send a warning: the 'everything's for sale' era of Boris Yeltsin was over. The KGB's hard men, with President Vladimir Putin at their head, were shutting down Moscow's military-secrets mart.

Russian Shkval torpeodo ('Squall') The most interesting part of the 'affaire' Pope was what the American businessman was after: plans for Russia's remarkable 'Squall' torpedo. This weapon, 533mm in diameter by 8.23 meters long, has a reported underwater speed in excess of 200 knots (220mph), a range of 20 miles, and an operational depth of 400 meters. Naval sources say 'Squall' may even be able to travel at 300mph (500 kph) underwater.

'Squall' attains its unprecedented speed by making use of 'super-cavitation,' a hydro-dynamic principal known since Isaac Newton's day, but still only partially understood by western scientists. The missile is discharged from a sub's torpedo tubes by compressed air, then uses propellers until well clear of the sub. Or, it may be catapulted out. Then, a rocket motor fires, propelling the weapon to high speed. The 'Squall's' flattened nose streams water backwards and away from the missile's body, causing a large air bubble to form around the torpedo, which is maintained by high-pressure air pumped from the torpedo's nose.

Conventional torpedoes travel at 35-45 knots; the fastest western weapon, Britain's 'Spearfish,' hits 75 knots. All struggle against water resistance. By contrast, the air bubble from super-cavitation that envelops 'Squall' almost totally eliminates friction with water, permitting enormous speed. The only part of 'Squall' that actually touches water is its nose. 

Thanks to its great velocity, 'Squall' can destroy an enemy sub before it has time to react. The system can reportedly be configured to hit surface or submerged targets at long ranges, up to 250 kms, by using a carrier rocket. Guidance, however, is a major problem. Some intelligence sources say the torpedo is unguided, in essence, an underwater bullet. One may envisage a submarine firing salvos of 'Squalls' at surface or underwater targets. Russian sources claim a guidance system for 'Squall' has been developed. 

'Squall,' however, has a major weakness. Its highly volatile rocket fuel is extremely dangerous. Western naval experts are convinced a series of massive weapons explosions ripped apart and sank the huge Russian submarine 'Kursk' last August, with the loss of 118 sailors.

Now comes the "good news," but only if you're a Russian defense worker.  Russia recently sold 40 Shkval torpedoes to China.  So that now raises the question of how do you get within 20 miles of an American carrier in order to launch a Shkval torpedoes for a sure kill and with what?

Newsmax.com, March 13, 2001
China Moves Toward War

While the U.S. Navy is concerned over the rapid growth of anti-ship missiles such as the KLUB, another modern Russian weapon purchased by Beijing has sent alarm bells ringing through the halls of the Pentagon. According to defense analysts, the Chinese navy recently bought a small number of Russian-made Shkval rocket torpedoes. 

"China has reportedly purchased the Shkval, but there are also reports that its current subs do not have tubes large enough to fire it. This very high speed torpedo would provide the PLA with the technology to build their own version, and this is a looming threat," noted the Jamestown Foundation's Richard Fisher.

Given that China's own submarines with their 21-inch torpedo tubes are "noisy" according to American submariners and incapable of launching the Shkval, how can China deliver these 533mm torpedoes at close range with any chance of surprise?  Again, Russian technology provides the answer. 

Russian has sold four of its latest variants of the Kilo submarine to China: Two type 877EKM and two of the newer type 636.  All four are capable of firing the Shkval torpedo.   

Naval Technology
SSK KILO CLASS (TYPE 877EKM)
ATTACK SUBMARINE, RUSSIA

The Russian Kilo Class submarine first entered service in the early 1980's. It was designed by the Rubin Central Maritime Design Bureau, St Petersburg. Subsequent developments have led to the current production versions, the Type 877EKM and most recently, Type 636.  China has two Type 877EKM, Iran has three Type 877EKM and India has nine Type 877EKM. 

Kilo type 877EKM.  China has two subs.

The Type 877EKM is designed for anti-submarine (ASW) and anti-surface ship (ASuW) warfare. It has six 533mm torpedo tubes and carries 18 heavyweight torpedoes (six in the tubes and twelve on the racks), with an automatic rapid loader. Two targets can be engaged simultaneously.

China has two Type 636 submarines and like the Type 877EKM, the Type 636 are designed for anti-submarine (ASW) and anti-surface ship (ASuW) warfare and also for general reconnaissance and patrol missions. 

Naval Technology
SSK KILO CLASS (TYPE 636)
ATTACK SUBMARINE, RUSSIA

The Type 636 submarine is considered to be to be one of the quietest diesel submarines in the world. It is said to be capable of detecting an enemy submarine at a range three to four times greater than it can be detected itself. 

Type 636 submarine under construction.The submarine is equipped with a multi-purpose combat and command system, which provides information for effective submarine control and torpedo firing. 

Two torpedo tubes are designed for firing remote-controlled torpedoes with a very high accuracy. The computer-controlled torpedo system is provided with a quick-loading device. The first salvo is fired within two minutes and the second within five minutes.

In terms of being quiet, the diesel-electric 636 is comparable to the latest American SSN-688 Los Angeles-class nuclear submarine.  Further, given the rapid reload capability of the 636, the two subs could theoretically launch 20 Shkval torpedoes into an American carrier group within 5 minutes at a distance of 20 miles.

If a the possibility of being hit below the water line by a torpedo traveling close to 300 mph isn't enough to make you sleep poorly, the Shkval is only one half of China's new one-two punch.  The other punch comes above the waterline at more than twice the speed of sound.   

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