Signs 81 – Tail-end Charlie

| October 5, 2023

Signs 81 - Tail-end CharlieIn our previous installment, Signs 80 – Acceleration?, we stated that Nemesis could become a steady fixture in our daily sky once Nemesis achieves perihelion.

This means that the distance and speed variables are changing; Nemesis is in a fast, comet-like orbit and getting faster.

What we see with September fireballs suggests the Nemesis Cloud is moving away from us.  Now, we could be getting a glimpse of what trails behind this mini constellation.

Could a few nasty tail-end Charlies be waiting for us out there?

September 2023 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society, the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate Fireballs for 1/2019 to 9/2023

April was the last month to set a record for this dataset in 2023, and now September 2023 holds the unique position of being the only record this month.  This tells us we’re seeing an uptick in fireballs with flatter trajectories.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It’s commonplace for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report it.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs for 1/2019 to 9/2023

September 2023 comes in second place for this dataset and shows a marked increase in fireballs with steeper trajectories.

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset, and September 2023 limps into third place once again.

AMS Monthly Fireballs for 1/2019 to 9/2023

This pattern corroborates the pulse pattern phase hypothesis of J.P. Jones.  However, it appears we’re seeing a stronger pulse for larger fireballs and a lower pulse for smaller fireballs.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals

The inner ring of the Nemesis Cloud is bolting upward through the ecliptic into the Northern skies as Nemesis begins accelerating toward aphelion, its closest point to Sol.

This brings us to the annual totals, which show a softer result than last year at this time.

AMS Yearly Fireballs for 1/2011 to 9/2023

In September 2023, we beat out the previous years from 2017 backward and came within a respectable distance of beating 2018.

What we’re seeing overall now suggests that due to the perihelion acceleration pattern proposed by J.P. Jones, we could be transiting the outer edges of the Nemesis Cloud as the Nemesis Constellation heads at high acceleration towards perihelion. If so, this supports our hypothesis that the Nemesis cloud simultaneously moves on two axes.

After the Nemesis crosses the ecliptic back into the southern skies, we will transit its debris tail and encounter an occasional tail-end Charlie that will not be pleasant.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997.

Earthquakes All Magnitudes 1/1997 to 9/2023

Oh, Lordy, will you look at that?  We’re back in four-digit territory.

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2019 to 9/2023

The illustration below uses current USGS data and represents earthquakes of all magnitudes.

Monthly Earthquakes All Magnitudes 1/2019 to 9/2023

Is data capping making a comeback, as in Revenge of the USGS Part Deux?  Oh, to hell with it.  Back to business as usual.  We report, and you ignore.

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Category: Signs

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