Signs 79 – One Way or Another

| August 4, 2023

Signs 79 – One Way or AnotherWe explored two possibilities in Signs 78 – September Will Be the Canary in the Coal Mine, thin vs. gap.

The reporting data shows that the odds of us transiting a thin Nemesis Cloud region are thin at best.

Instead, if recent trends continue, we will continue in this pulse pattern phase and eventually into another gap.

The July numbers show that we are in a trough of waves, and the numbers are on track for another gap.

All that’s left to do is to listen to Blondie singing One Way or Another and waiting for the canary to sing.   On that note, let’s get into the numbers.

July 2023 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society, the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate Fireballs for 1/2019 to 7/2023

July 2023 comes in at 2nd place for this period since 2019.   What interests us is the difference between 2022 and 2023 for the months of May, June, and July.   There is a consistent pattern here.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It’s commonplace for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report it.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs for 1/2019 to 7/2023

July 2023 ties with 2019 in last place.  Also, we find another difference of interest.  Again, it is between 2022 and 2023 for the months of May, June, and July.   As before, a similar pattern as well.

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset, and July 2023 limps into third place.

AMS Monthly Fireballs for 1/2019 to 7/2023

Now we have three months with the same difference of interest.  As before, it is between 2022 and 2023 for the months of May, June, and July, and again, a similar ‘boring’ pattern.   Furthermore, the pattern is bigger.  There is another.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals

The inner ring of the Nemesis Cloud is bolting upward through the ecliptic into the Northern skies as Nemesis begins accelerating toward aphelion, its closest point to Sol.

This brings us to the annual totals, which show the fourth such difference of interest.  As before, it is between 2022 and 2023 for the months of May, June, and July.

AMS Multistate Fireballs for 1/2011 to 7/2023

Compared with previous years, 2023 has been slow in getting off the line, which raises an intriguing possibility.

If we enter another gap between the inner rings of the Nemesis Cloud, as it appears we are, 2023 could become the first year since 2011 to fall short of setting a new annual record for this dataset.

“It is boring,” some will say, out of ignorance.

On the other hand, thinkers will see it for what it is—the calm before the storm.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997.

Earthquakes All Magnitudes 1/1997 to 7/2023

We’ve walked out of the valley of data capping.  It’s a miracle, and dare we say; it shows signs of life.

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2019 to 7/2023

The illustration below uses current USGS data and represents earthquakes of all magnitudes.

Earthquakes of All Magnitudes 1/1997 to 6/2023

The March, April, May, June, and July reporting shows a steady difference between 2022 and 2023 in favor of 2023.   This is promising, but time will tell.

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Category: Signs

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