Signs 82 – An Uneasy Calm

| November 5, 2023

Signs 82 – An Uneasy CalmIn our previous installment, Signs 81 –  Tail End Charlie, we stated that the Nemesis distance and speed variables are changing and that the Nemesis Cloud could be moving away from us.

When J.P. Jones sent me the October data, they confirmed that hypothesis.   We’re seeing a decline across all three fireball subsets.  Not good.

We are in a period of what I call an uneasy calm as we transit what trails behind this mini constellation.

This slump raises the specter that a few nasty tail-end Charlies will be waiting for us out there, and if the patterns hold true, Nemesis will reach perihelion sometime this summer.   After that, it’s game on, so let’s look at the numbers.

October 2023 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society, the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate Fireballs for 1/2019 to10/2023

Remember that great scene in Coneheads (1993) when Connie Conehead dives off the highboard and hits the water without so much as a ripple?

September 2023 was the only record for that month, and it was the highboard for October.  And it’s another Connie Conehead performance, except this one is not entertaining in the least.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It’s commonplace for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report it.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs for 1/2019 to10/2023

In terms of drop, this is an all-time record.  It’s like Connie Conehead slamming into the bottom of the diving pool.   The previous drop was concerning, but this is an anomalous drop during a time when it should be rising.

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset, and September 2023 limps into third place once again.

AMS Monthly Fireballs for 1/2019 to10/2023

This hi-lo pattern corroborates the pulse pattern phase hypothesis of J.P. Jones.   This drop clearly shows the Nemesis Cloud is changing.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals

The inner ring of the Nemesis Cloud is bolting upward through the ecliptic into the Northern skies as Nemesis begins accelerating toward aphelion, its closest point to Sol.

This brings us to the annual totals, which show a softer result than last year at this time.

AMS Yearly Fireballs for 1/2011 to10/2023

Last month, this dataset beat out the previous years from 2017 backward and came within a respectable distance of beating 2018.  If 2023 was consistent with the previous periods, 2023 should already be ahead of 2019.

The data for October gives further credence to the perihelion acceleration pattern proposed by J.P. Jones; we could be transiting the outer edges of the Nemesis Cloud as the Nemesis Constellation heads at high acceleration towards perihelion.

Overall, the trend is not positive.  Rather, it shows that we’re in an uneasy calm and that some nasty surprises await us in 2024.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997.

Earthquakes All Magnitudes 1/1997 to 10 /2023

Woo-hoo?  We’re back in five-digit territory.  So why does it feel like the ghost of data capping past?

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2019 to 9/2023

The illustration below uses current USGS data and represents earthquakes of all magnitudes.

Monthly Earthquakes All Magnitudes 1/2019 to 10/2023

Is data capping making a comeback?  Let’s monitor it and see.

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Category: Signs

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