Signs 78 – September Will Be the Canary in the Coal Mine

| July 6, 2023

Signs 78 – September Will Be the Canary in the Coal MineWith the June fireball numbers, the data indicates that we’re entering another gap in the Nemesis cloud.  We’re also happy to report that the end of USGS data capping is now in its fourth month.

The June numbers are consistent with the May numbers, but not for a thin region of the inner band. Instead, we’re forward into another gap as we continue to see the pulse pattern for fireballs that emerged this year with variations between the crest and trough of waves.

Going forward, September will be the canary in the coal mine month for this trend.   On that note, let’s get into the numbers.

June 2023 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society, the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate Fireballs for 1/2019 to 6/2023

June 2023 comes in at 2nd place for this period since 2019.   What is of interest to us is that the difference between May and June 2023 is statistically significant.   We’re seeing a notable uptick in this dataset for this month.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It’s commonplace for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report it.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs for 1/2019 to 6/2023

What we find compelling is that this dataset is performing at a similar rate to AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs.  Unlike the other datasets, these two are holding their own.  That means in June, the reporting showed the usual level of larger objects for this period but in a thinner field of smaller objects.

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset, and June 2023 is eating dust.

AMS Monthly Fireballs for 1/2019 to 6/2023

June 2023 is the lowest month in this dataset since 2019.  This statistically significant drop indicates a trough, likely proving to be another gap by September.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals

The inner ring of the Nemesis Cloud is bolting upward through the ecliptic into the Northern skies as Nemesis begins accelerating toward aphelion, its closest point to Sol.  This brings us to the annual totals.

AMS Yearly Fireballs for 1/2011 to 6/2023

We are halfway into 2023 and into the third quarter, and so far, the total number of fireballs beats 2011 and 2012 but falls short of beating 2013.

AMS Annual Fireballs for 1/2011 to 6/2022

Unlike June 2023, the numbers for June 2022 topped 2011 through 2014.  This also goes to us entering yet another gap in the Nemesis Cloud and becomes readily apparent when we compare this month with that of a year ago.

Nonetheless, fireball reports in the first half of the year are lower and get much higher in the second half.  Keep that in mind.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997.

Earthquakes All Magnitudes 1/1997 to 5/2023

The table above includes June 2023 with the data reported by the USGS for the month.  OMG, we are still in five digits territory.  Someone, please pinch me. 

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2019 to 6/2023

The illustration below uses current USGS data and represents earthquakes of all magnitudes.

Earthquakes All Magnitudes 1/2019 to 6/2023

The reporting appears natural for the last four months; note the steady gain for the months of March, April, May, and June in 2023 versus the previous year.  It will be interesting to see the numbers for July and August.


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Category: Signs

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