Signs 69 – The Next Six Months Will Tell
The numbers came in for September 2022, and we’re beginning to see a similar pattern in both 2021 and 2022.
The activity in 2022 is higher, of course, but it is the similar data trends we see forming. Hence, the next six months will be a crucial period.
Meanwhile, as before, the USGS reporting defies the term “natural variability.” As you will see, the numbers are jiggered again. On that note, let’s get into the numbers.
September 2022 Fireballs
Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society, the primary source for North America, for this dataset.
AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs
Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.
In September, we saw an increase for this period, but August remains the highest month reported this year. However, September sets a new all-time high for this month.
AMS Huge Event Fireballs
It is commonplace for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report it.
Although we’re seeing three consistent months, this dataset and multistate fireballs indicate that we continue to move through the inner ring of the Nemesis cloud, which appears to be of the same density and debris size.
AMS Monthly Total Fireballs
The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for September 2022, the results are short of topping August.
The difference between August and September 2022 is statically negligible.
Yearly AMS Fireball Totals
The inner ring of the Nemesis Cloud is bolting upward through the ecliptic into the Northern skies as Nemesis begins accelerating toward aphelion, its closest point to Sol. This brings us to the annual totals.
Nine months into 2022, September has topped the years 2011 to 2018 by a significant margin.
What is the bottom line? We’re still in the inner ring of the Nemesis Cloud, and two possibilities exist.
Between now and February, we could see a significant increase in the density of the inner ring. This is the good news.
The bad news is that we see a significant decrease which could mean we’re headed for yet another inner ring, and crossing the gap between the two could create a quintessential calm before the storm scenario.
Earthquakes Since 1997
At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997.
The updated table below includes September 2022 with the data reported by the USGS for the month.
Monthly Earthquakes 1/2019 to 8/2022
When we look at the annual global earthquakes for September, we see the same overall trend since January 2021. The numbers track previous years but with a flatter range.
Last month, we extracted the 2022 numbers from this table for a better look.
As you can see, a near-flat line of values is inconsistent with natural variability. But could it happen again? Check August below.
Again, the numbers fall within an artificial range.
We challenge you, readers, to go back through our Signs reports to see a similar pattern in any year since 1997 with a narrower margin of difference.
Of particular interest is jiggering, as we’ve reported previously.
Unless these artificial anomalies can be explained, the USGS is another captured Federal agency. Until this, we will continue reporting USGS data for entertainment value only.
The bottom line is that trouble is flying at us, which is why I wrote the Win-Win Survival Handbook. It shows you how to locate a survival community and build it deep and safe.
Category: Signs
