Signs 63 – Statistical Standoff

| April 2, 2022

Signs 63 – Statistical StandoffIn Signs 62 – Blip or Gap, the data hinted at two possibilities.  The beginning of a new gap in the Nemesis Cloud – or not.

Oddly, the data for March does not clarify this statistical standoff between these two possibilities.

Rather, it’s an odd mix, and so one thing is clear.  It will a few months before a more definitive analysis is possible.

This is not to say that we are out of danger or that things are improving.

The danger persists and we see no particular improvement at this time.  Hence, our concerns about a major impact event later this year remain.

March 2022 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate Fireballs for 1/2019 to 3/2022
March 2022 is close behind the same period in 2021.   However, when we view the first quarter of this year as a whole, the number of multistate observations for this 3-month period is roughly as high as 2021.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball event.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs for 1/2019 to 3/2022

This is the data subset that surprised us.  In February 2022, there we no reported huge events.   Then in March, we see roughly the same levels as in January for huge and multistate data subsets.   Ergo, the search goes on.

What We’re Looking For

As reported in Signs 60, we use the huge event data subset for testing J.P. Jone’s Nemesis Ring Theory.   Specially, we’re looking for the gaps between the rings as illustrated below.

J.P. Jones Nemesis Cloud Data

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for March 2022 the results, are not statistically significant as compared with March 2021.

AMS Monthly Fireballs for 1/2019 to 3/2022

Let’s imagine this as a horse race.  When we compare the first quarter of 2022 with the previous three years, 2022 wins by a nose.

This tells us is that we continue to be in an area of space that is unusually dense with Earth-crossing objects.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals

The inner ring of the Nemesis Cloud is bolting upward through the ecliptic into the Northern skies as Nemesis begins accelerating toward aphelion, its closest point to Sol.   This brings us to the annual totals.

AMS Yearly Fireballs for 1/2011 to 3/2022

For the period 2012 to 2022, we see a decade of change where the first quarter of 2022 equals that of the entire year of 2012.  Wow!

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997.  The updated table below now includes March 2022 with the data reported by the USGS for the month.

Earthquakes 1/1997 to 3/2022

At 9,465 earthquakes of all magnitudes, March 2022 is now the third consecutive 5-digit month for 2022 as reported by the USGS.

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2019 to 2/2022

When we look at annual global earthquakes for February, we see the same overall trend since January 2021.  The numbers track previous years but with a flatter range.

For those with an untrained eye, it would be simple to assume that shows a broad lowering trend.  For example, the USGS did not report earthquakes during the La Palma eruption.

USGS Jiggerning 1/2008 to 7/2021

At this point, the data we harvested during the Trump administration is consistent and reliable, whereas we see clear evidence of jiggering during the Obama administration and resumption of that tactic during the Biden administration.

The sad truth is that thanks to anomalous earthquake reporting, we have to consider the reality that we’re flying blind with the USGS now.  We will continue reporting the data though it is now highly suspect.


The AMS data for March 2022 is a mixed bag and with regards to the Nemesis Cloud, the proposition that we could be entering another gap is still up for grabs.

However, when we step back and view the first quarter of this year as a whole, it reminds me of what J. P. Jones said it could be.  An Alberta Clipper (quicker hitter) passing in a flurry.

After seeing the numbers for March, all J.P. could say was that he is curious as to what we’ll see for April.  Ergo, he’s not discounting the chance of a full-fledged blizzard storm.

If so, a storm can be many things, natural and manmade as well so what could be the sum of all fears now.

It is not implausible that in the latter half of this year, WW III escalates with a nuclear weapon, and then following this attack our world will be shaken again, with a devastating impact event.  Or, the other way around.

This is why I wrote the Win-Win Survival Handbook.  It shows you how to locate a survival community and build it deep and safe.

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Category: Signs

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