Signs 54 – USGS Jiggered the Numbers

| July 17, 2021
Signs 54 - USGS Caught Jiggering EQ NumbersThe numbers for June 2021 were ho-hum and in the back of the pack.  Given current events, what’s normal anymore?  So, J.P. Jones decided to audit our earthquake database and what he found is stunning.  Jiggering.  Or in other words, “Official” data disinformation. The AMS reports we use for our fireball database are accurate and reliable.  No issues there. However, we use the USGS, as the source for our earthquake database and our decision to conduct this audit was months in the coming. This is why we said in Signs 52 – A Small Reprieve, “Until we see massive reductions in the month-on-month reporting for fireballs and earthquakes, it’s ain’t over till it’s over and folks, it ain’t over.”  Nothing has changed. With this in mind, we’ll first present the numbers for June 2021 and then we’ll present the audit finding of researcher J.P. Jones.   So, let’s get into the numbers.

June 2021 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset. AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas. AMS Multistate Fireballs for 1/2017 to 6/2021Historically, June is the lowest overall month in the subset and the figures for June 2021  are statistically consistent with the other years. AMS Huge Event Fireballs It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball even AMS Huge Event Fireballs for 1/2017 to 6/2021Two huge events per month is a median figure and June 2021 showed only one huge event.  Curiously, there were three huge events in June 2020. AMS Monthly Total Fireballs The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for March 2021 we see an all-time 1st quarter record. AMS Monthly Fireballs for 1/2017 to 6/2021 June is the low ebb for the year.   Overall, there is a definite growth trend and June 2021 was by no means, a small reprieve. Yearly AMS Fireball Totals Assuming we are passing through the outer dust rings of the Planet X system, are we’re moving into a thicker ring where there is a higher likelihood of a catastrophic impact event? This brings us to the annual totals. AMS Yearly Fireballs for 1/2011 to 6/2021 Earlier we described the numbers for June 2021 as ho-hum and in the back of the pack.   What is not ho-hum, is that at mid-year 2021, we’ve already exceeded the total number of fireballs for 2013.  Plus, we’re within a hair’s breadth of topping 2014 as well.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997. The updated table below now includes June 2021. All EQs Worldwide from 1/1997 to 6/2021 With 12,765 events, June is the highest month on record for the first half of 2021. Monthly Earthquakes 1/2017 to 6/2021 When we look at annual global earthquakes for the dataset for January 2017 to June 2021. GiAll EQs Worldwide from 1/2017 to 6/2021Given the record highs in 2018 and 2019, it will be interesting to see the final numbers for July. This being said, in future Signs installments, you will see changes in our EQ data reporting that reflect our July 2021 audit findings.

July 2021 Audit Findings

While reviewing the June data with J.P. Jones, he informed me that he was beginning to see what could be a significant discrepancy between what the USGS is now reporting vs. what their online database provided in years past. Since we published the first installment of the Signs series on February 20, 2015, we’ve used the following USGS online query form to obtain our data. USGS EQ Database AccessFor the purpose of this audit, we chose the time frame of January 1, 2008, to June 2021.  The goal being, to see if there was a difference in the reporting prior to and after December 21, 2012. All EQs Worldwide from 1/1997 to 6/2021 (AUDITED) Above is the same table as shown under the heading Earthquakes Since 1997, but with the data now being reported for the study period of our audit. To see the difference, the following graphic shows the activity reported for this Signs installment.  To the right of the totals, is a column with the audit actuals for the yearly totals. Previous EQs Worldwide from 1/1997 to 6/2021All EQs vs. July 2021 Audit Actuals The years that comprise the audit actuals and are shown in red.  As you can see, the differences in the numbers are substantial, but how much so? Table Comparison for 1/2008 to 6/2021All EQs vs. July 2021 Against Audit Actuals With this side-by-side comparison, a quick give-away is the differences in the color shading for the years prior to 2012.  However, when we graph the data, as the old saying goes, “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Graph Comparison for 1/2008 to 6/2021All EQs vs. July 2021 Against Audit Actuals In the years preceding 2012, there was clearly a massive intentional under-reporting of EQ data by the USGS and the graph indicates this was more a matter of policy than science. If the actual numbers had been honestly reported, Mayan Calendar concerns would have been supported by science. After December 21, 2012, this policy of under-reporting then took on the classic tactic of embezzlers who steal by manipulating the percentages.  Ergo, the numbers we’re seeing now are at least 10% percent low. All this begs a few nagging questions. Why are the USGS now reflecting more accurate ED data and if this is a policy, who set it and why? That being said, the EQ actuals are actually worse than anything we’ve reported before, so there is no joy of discovery here.

Tags: , , , , , ,

Category: Signs

Comments are closed.