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Signs 53 – Divergent Trends Emerge

Signs 53 - Divergent Trends EmergeThe numbers for May 2021 show the emergence of divergent trends for fireballs on one hand, and earthquakes of all magnitudes on the other.

While fireballs continue to rise, we’re now seeing small monthly drops in earthquakes this year.   However, given the current earthquake activity on the West Coast and Hawaii this month, let’s not break out the champagne.

Rather, we see May as either the end of a carryover trend from previous months, as a disturbing earthquake trend takes shape.   Consequently, Yowusa.com researcher J.P. Jones is mining the database for possible answers.

Meanwhile, it’s ain’t over till it’s over and folks, it ain’t over.  So, let’s get into the numbers.

May 2021 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

While April was a small but significant drop from March, the figures for May 2021  are still the highest for this entire period of study.  Ergo, it is beginning to look as though the small reprieve of last month, was a one-trick pony.  Time will tell.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball even

While the numbers for February and March were stunning, April, which are typically low for the month, we now see a consistent pattern for May from 2019 to 2021.  A statistical push you might say.

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for May 2021 we see a trend reversal at the bottom of the 2nd quarter.

The small reprieve of April has faded and we’re back to rising numbers.  June will be telling.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals

Assuming we are passing through the outer dust rings of the Planet X system, are we’re moving into a thicker ring where there is a higher likelihood of a catastrophic impact event? This brings us to the annual totals.

Just five months into 2021 and the yearly totals for 2011 and 2012 were smashed with 2011 being half as much and 2012 being two-thirds as much.  It makes us wonder.  Will June push the line above 2013 and 2014?  Stay tuned.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997. The updated table below now includes May 2021.

The 10,175 events for May, make it the third-highest month of 2021.   While it is nice to see a small drop, let’s consider the three highest months on record:

  1. July 2019
  2. July 2018
  3. June 2018

Given the micro swarms happening in Hawaii and on the West Coast, a new divergent trend is taking shape and we fear it is not for the best.

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2017 to 4/2021

When we look at annual global earthquakes for the dataset for January 2017 to May 2021, we continue to see a hi-lo pattern.

Going forward, the months to look for will be June and July.  This is an odd mix so let’s not assume some kind of settling.  June will be important, but the third quarter is when to expect more definitive data.

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