Signs 52 – A Small Reprieve

| May 12, 2021

Signs 52 – A Small ReprieveThe numbers for April 2021 are the best this year and show a small reprieve from the mind-numbing trends seen so far. 

As researcher J.P. Jones explains it, we should not view this reprieve as the reversal of the overall, ominous trends we’re observing.

Rather, we see April as either the end of a carryover trend from previous months, or it could be the beginning of something entirely new.  We have to see how the data plays out.

Meanwhile, until we see massive reductions in the month-on-month reporting for fireballs and earthquakes, it’s ain’t over till it’s over and folks, it ain’t over.  So, let’s get into the numbers.

April 2021 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

Signs 52 - AMS Multistate Fireballs

In a dramatic drop from the 1st quarter, the figures for April 2021  are lower than April of 2019 and 2020.

The high-density mix of larger objects in March has passed us by.  A small reprieve and we are glad to see it.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball even

Signs 52 - AMS Huge Event FIreballsTwo huge events per month is a median figure and April showed two huge events. A reprieve?  No.  Just a welcome drop to a “normal” level if such a thing is possible.

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for March 2021 we see an all-time 1st quarter record.

Signs 52 - AMS Montly Fireballs

April is the beginning of the second quarter and this 3-month period is the low ebb for the year.   It would be nice to see a drop commensurate with multistate and huge events, but it is still a small reprieve.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals

Assuming we are passing through the outer dust rings of the Planet X system, are we’re moving into a thicker ring where there is a higher likelihood of a catastrophic impact event? This brings us to the annual totals.

Signs 52 - AMS Yearly Fireballs

While we call April 2021 a small reprieve, let’s put this in context.  With only the first four months of 2021 reported, the totals for this year already exceed those of 2011 and 2012 by a considerable margin.

Mind you, the real numbers will come piling in during the 3rd and 4th quarters of the year. In the process, we’ll likely see new trends form, but first, we’ve got to get there.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997. The updated table below now includes April 2021.

Signs 52 - Annual Earthquakes

The 10,240 events for April, make it the second-highest month of 2021.    Had the amount dropped from five digits to four, that would have been a reprieve.

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2017 to 4/2021

When we look at annual global earthquakes for the dataset for January 2017 to April 2021, we see a fairly consistent patter where 2020 was the overall top scoring year.

Signs 51 - Monthly Earthquakes

The month to look for will be July, due to the extreme heights for 2018 and 2019 for that period.   However, this does raise a point of interest as to what happened in 2020, so we will mine the data for any possible connections.

Tags: , , ,

Category: Signs

Comments are closed.