Signs 51 – Oh Crap!

| April 3, 2021
Signs 51 – Oh Crap!As the March 2021 data began to come in, researcher J.P. Jones sent me a mid-month heads-up on the number of observed fireballs.   We could see that another all-time record was taking shape.  It left us both with a foreboding sense of how the rest of March would play out, given our last Signs article. In that article, we showed that Earth has been passing through bands within the Nemesis cloud, much like the rings of Saturn, and that from 2019 to 2020, we were in the inner of three bands.  When J.P. Jones sent me the final numbers for March 2021, the only thing I could think as I reviewed the data was “oh crap!”  We’re still deep in the third band which means the pattern has changed.  With that, let’s get into it.

Signs No. 50 Review

In Signs 50, Planet X Flyby – When We See It, What We See, and Why Most Will Die, we presented the result of our database mining effort to analyze a recent, ominous trend in the fireball data.  Below is the key slide. Nemesis Bands - The numbers do not lie and thanks to J.P. Jones spotting the pattern, here are the results:
  • 2013 – 2014: Transit of Band No. 1 (Outer)
  • 2015 – Transit Between Bands No. 1 and No. 2
  • 2016 – 2017: Transit of Band No. 2 (Middle)
  • 2018 – Transit Between Bands No. 2 and No. 3
  • 2019 – 2020: Transit of Band No. 3 (Inner)
  • 2021 – First Quarter and We’re Still Deep in Band No. 3
Using this as a step-off point, let’s review the new numbers for March 2021.

March 2021 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset. AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas. In a radical departure from historical data for the 1st quarter, March 2021 was yet another all-time record-breaking month and not by a little; but dammit, by a lot! This tells us that we observed a higher-density mix of larger objects in March that looks more like the peak months of November and December. AMS Huge Event Fireballs It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball even Yes, multistate observations for March were bad, but this huge event data for last month is our “oh crap” smoking gun data.  Consider this, in January 2021, we reported only one huge event, and now, we’ve reported 15 for the entire first quarter of 2021.  Let’s see how that stacks up:
  • First-quarter 2021: 15 Huge Events
  • Jan to Jun 2020: 15 Huge Events
  • Jan to Jul 2019: 15 Huge Events
This is an all-time record for this series and what it suggests is that we’re heading into an unknown county. AMS Monthly Total Fireballs The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for March 2021 we see an all-time 1st quarter record. When we look at the first-quarter results for 2017 through 2021, we see an apples and oranges situation.  We have apples in 2017 through 2020, and 2021 is the orange and it’s huge! Yearly AMS Fireball Totals Assuming we are passing through the outer dust rings of the Planet X system, are we’re moving into a thicker ring where there is a higher likelihood of a catastrophic impact event? This brings us to the annual totals. This dataset goes from 1/2011 to 3/2021 and the first quarter of 2021 is higher than all of 2011 put together and is within 5% of topping 2012 as well.   Simply stated, when it comes to annual totals, 2021 has already gotten off on the wrong foot.  Not good.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997. The updated table below now includes March 2021. Before we celebrate a slight dip in March 2021 for this sub-set, let’s put that in perspective.  The three  highest months for March for the month for the years 1997 to 2021 as follows:
  1. 2020: 12,451
  2. 2021: 11,086
  3. 2018: 9,663
Note, all figures from 1997 to 2019 are 4-digits. Only 2020 and 2021 are 5-digits long. Monthly Earthquakes 1/2017 to 12/2020 When we look at annual global earthquakes for the dataset for January 2017 to March 2021, we see a consistent month-to-month drop from the first quarter of 2020. We will focus more on this divergence over the coming year, to get a better idea of what is driving these divergent cycles.


The point of the Signs series has always been to spot trends leading up to a major event and the series has always been a kind of horse race between earthquakes and fireballs.  However, after we published Signs No. 47 last year, it was clear the race had been decided., Feb 8, 2020 Signs 47 – 2019 Worst Ever for Fireballs The Signs data for December 2019 is that this is the highest year on record for observed fireballs. As for earthquakes of all magnitudes, it is the second-highest on record, and it was a very close finish. Monthly AMS Fireball Totals - 12/2019 Worse yet, we know we’re pushing the edge of the envelope with fate, and what December 2019 is telling us, is that unless there is an abatement of ongoing trends, it is highly likely that we tear through it, in the latter half of 2020.

At that time, we had just published Win-Win Survival Communities and it was clear the book needed an update to address this, as impact events are now the most immediate concern. 

IWin-Win Survival Handbook by Marshall Mastersn March of 2020, we began work on a new version titled, Win-Win Survival Handbook: All-Hazards Safety and Future Space Colonization.

The book has a completely new cover and now the emphasis is clearly on the threat of impact events.  We also added a lot of new content to the second iteration, including 123 illustrations, and updated the text. However, the principal reason was the addition of something new.   It is an optional layer I invented, that can be added to increase the overcover protecting the shelters. I call it an “Impact Basket,”  and we show different variations of it.  Depending on your final design, it is possible to double the effective strength of the shelter’s overcover protection. Will this work for you? That depends on how long you procrastinate on preparation.  If you’re not quite ready to do it, then what have you got? While you’re chewing on that one, we’ll be working in service to those in awareness who understand that there is no more time for procrastination.  If you think otherwise, you’re betting your life and those of whom you love, on that assumption and you might want to do the numbers on that idea again.

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Category: Planet X, Signs

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