Signs 46 – The Ghost of 2020 Future

| December 28, 2019

Signs 46 – The Ghost of 2020 FutureThe Signs data for November 2019 is giving us a ghostly vision of what is to come in 2020. When I received the November data from J.P. Jones, I could see it in the data, though it seemed vaporous and disturbing.

So, I decided to put it off until after Christmas. I like the calm of Christmas, and I decided to put it off. Glad I did. It was a beautiful day for me as I hope it was for all of you. And besides, it’s not like we have a shortage of bad news these days, so vapor that.

Speaking of vapor, a note to those of you who wonder why I haven’t posted much in the last few months. It is because I’m beavering away on my next book, Win-Win Survival Communities. You’ll see a formal announcement after the first.

All that being said, events that happened around Christmas time, has given the ghost in the data, more substance. So with that, let’s get into the numbers.

November 2019 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate Fireball Totals 2015 to Nov 2019

November 2019 is the lowest for this month dating back to 2015.  The degree of difference with previous years for November hints at a slight lowering trend.  We’ll see what we see.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball even

AMS Huge Event Fireball Totals 2015 to Nov 2019

November came in with another low with huge event fireballs.  This is a welcome change.


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AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for November 2019, we see a new record high for this year.

Monthly AMS Fireball Totals 2015 to Nov 2019

This report slide is disturbing and it makes me wonder what we’ll see in the December data.

AMS Total Yearly Fireballs

The total number of reported fireballs of all sizes is where the big picture moves from monthly to yearly, and here the news is that we’ve crossed another threshold. As of November of this year, 2019 broke the standing record from 2018.  This year, more fireballs were observed than in any previous year throughout recorded history.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals 2011 to Nov 2019

This is the slide that made me say, “after Christmas.”  It would be nice if we could just end the year right here.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997. The updated spreadsheet below has been updated with the November 2019 results.

With Swarms

Worldwide Monthly Earthquakes From Jan 1977 to Nov 2019

This version shows how 2018 swarms skew the overall representation.  The total for all earthquakes in 2018 was 160,281.

Without Swarms

Worldwide Monthly Earthquakes From Jan 1977 to Nov 2019 w/o Swarms

When we remove the swarms from the representation here is, how the slide appears.  As of November, there are have been 143,982 2019 earthquakes of all magnitudes.

If 2019 is to beat the all-time record set in 2018, we’ll need to see 17,200+ earthquakes for December.  Until the Christmas eve earthquakes along the west coast, I didn’t see it happening.  Now, it’s not so certain.

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2017 to 11/2019

When we look at annual global earthquakes for the dataset for January 2017 to November 2019 including VLE swarm events.

With Swarms

Worldwide Monthly Earthquakes From Jan 2017 to Nov 2019

Without Swarms

Worldwide Monthly Earthquakes From Jan 2017 to Nov 2019 w/o Swarms

When we remove swarms, the overall trend is that since September of this year, we continue to see new monthly records.  This is disturbing for me, given the recent Chrismas quakes.


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VLE Swarms

In Signs 43, we presented our findings on the very large earthquake (VLE) swarms that began with Hawaii in 2018. In that article, we presented a hypothesis to explain how this new twist in the data., Sep 26, 2019
Signs 43 – How California Sinks Into the Ocean
J.P. Jones Magma Rivers Hypothesis

Signs 43 - How California Sinks Into the OceanWe often think of volcanoes and fault lines as being regionally isolated from one another, for the most part. Conversely, this hypothesis posits J.P’s question, “what if there is another entire, undiscovered dimension to our planet, far below the ground?”

Imagine vast rivers of magma, flowing under high pressure, up from the Southern hemisphere along tectonic plate boundaries, and into to the Northern hemisphere.

Moving at high speeds and under great pressure, these rivers of magma feed tributary systems spanning vast distances, replete with streams, pools, lakes, and reservoirs.

The pools and lakes of magma in these tributary systems form under volcanoes, and the reservoirs form under supervolcanoes.

When volcanoes erupt, they function much as the release valve on the top of a pressure cooker. They vent excessive pressure caused by magma overflow, through the eruption.

What causes this pressure? More magma? Not likely. Rather, it is due to pressure from increased rates of magma flow velocity due to forces building deep up within the Earth. The causality is that Earth is in the early stages of a magnetic pole shift.

With this subset, the goal is to track swarms over time. We want to evaluate the possibility of a river of magma flowing around the edge of the Pacific Plate. We have designated three study areas.

North America Swarm Study Datasets

The three designated VLE swarms regions for this data subsets are China Lake, Alaska, and NW Territory regions.

USA Very Large Earthquake (VLE) Swarm Datasets

In the illustration above, you see screen captures with the designated areas and their geographic boundaries coordinates.

With this in mind, let’s see the numbers for our three regions for the month of November 2019.

All Earthquakes for VLE Swarm Study Regions

China Lake continues to show subsiding swarm activity. When you compare that with the data against the historical activity, we’re still in the red zone.

China Lake Dataset for Nov 2019

With Alaska, the rate of statistical subsidence slowed in November 2019.  Nonetheless, the number of earthquakes in November was more than January through June of this year.


Alaska Dataset for Nov 2019

We’re seeing the same statistical issues China Lake in Alaska, the Northwest Territory data for November shows a similar, drop.


NW Territory Dataset for Nov 2019

When we study the three VLE swarm datasets, the slowing rate in the statistical subsidence of all three is a new twist.

Now let’s compare these North America datasets against worldwide totals by year.


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USA VLE Swarms vs. Worldwide

The following 3-D slide presents the data for all earthquakes, including swarms for January through November of this year.

VLE Swarm vs. Worldwide 3-D for Nov 2019

As noted above, we’re seeing mixed VLE swarm data for the three regions. The 3-D slide shows that our study regions continue to subside at different levels for the period of July through November 2019.

With a more straightforward bar chart, we can see the comparative difference between the combined datasets and the worldwide numbers.


VLE Swarm vs. Worldwide for Nov 2019

While the 3-D slide above gives us a great feel for how the data forms waves.  However, this final slide gives us a clear message.  While we’re seeing progressively lower numbers after July, the relative amount of swarm subsidence as of November is slightly different.  When we get the December numbers, we’ll know better.

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Category: Signs

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