Signs 45 – A Quiet Holiday Season?

| November 8, 2019

Signs 45 - A Quiet Holiday Season?The Signs data for October 2019 is an odd mix as compared with previous months. Overall, the impression is that we’ve entered a period of transition as compared with trends previously reported.

On the one hand, we could be approaching a stabilization point where these troubling upticks could begin to level off somewhat.

On the other hand, is there is a nasty surprise lurking in this month’s fireball dataset.

One that gives us pause for concern, and it begs the question, will we have a quiet holiday season?

October 2019 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate Fireballs 1/2015 to 10-2019

October 2019 is the lowest for this month dating back to 2015.  However, while the statistical trend is less, the degree of difference with previous years for October is not a clear sign of relief.  It is more a case of putting this data subset into the see what develops next column.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball even

AMS Huge Event Fireballs 1/2015 to 10-2019

Huge event fireballs are of particular concern to us because this dataset also covers bolides as well and we now have two months with four huge event fireballs back-t0-back. Of all the subsets for the fireball dataset, this is the one that has us concerned.

In Signs 42, we said, “If we see a sudden spike with this one, it will be an ominous sign.”

Could we see that ominous spike before the end of this year?  If so, it could be a terrible wakeup call for the people of the world.


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AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for October 2019, we see the lowest figures for October in three years, but not by much.

AMS Monthly Fireball Totals 1/2015 to 10-2019

As with the Multistate dataset for this month, we’re also seeing a slight dip in the AMS Monthly Total Fireballs for October.

While the statistical trend is less, the degree of difference with previous years for October is not statistically significant.

AMS Total Yearly Fireballs

The total number of reported fireballs of all sizes is where the big picture moves from monthly to yearly, and here the news is that we’ve crossed another threshold. Not good.

Yearly AMS Fireball Totals 2011 to Oct 2019

If you’re ready to uncork the champagne on the hope that we’ve hit a settling point with these disturbing fireball trends, keep this one fact in mind.  With two months to go, October 2019, has already topped the yearly fireball totals 2011 through 2016.  Worse yet, this dataset is just a hair’s breadth from beating out 2017 as well. That is scary.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997. The updated spreadsheet below has been updated with the October 2019 results.

Worldwide Earthquakes - 1/1997 to 10/2019

For October, we see some relief from the high numbers for July through September but to put this slide in perspective, focus on the cell for October 2019. Then look straight up the column for a lower number.  You will not find one, because we’re still in the danger zone.

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2017 to 10/2019

When we look at annual global earthquakes for the dataset for January 2017 to October 2019 including VLE swarm events, October shows the fourth month in a row of VLE subsidence.

Worldwide Monthly Earthquakes - 1/2017 to 10/2019

Now that we’ve established that the peak activity we’re seeing for the period of July to September for 2018 and 2019 is due to very large earthquake (VLE) swarms, we’ve now added this to our earthquake dataset as the third subset.


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VLE Swarms

In Signs 43, we presented our findings on the very large earthquake (VLE) swarms that began with Hawaii in 2018. In that article, we presented a hypothesis to explain how this new twist in the data., Sep 26, 2019
Signs 43 – How California Sinks Into the Ocean
J.P. Jones Magma Rivers Hypothesis

Signs 43 - How California Sinks Into the OceanWe often think of volcanoes and fault lines as being regionally isolated from one another, for the most part. Conversely, this hypothesis posits J.P’s question, “what if there is another entire, undiscovered dimension to our planet, far below the ground?”

Imagine vast rivers of magma, flowing under high pressure, up from the Southern hemisphere along tectonic plate boundaries, and into to the Northern hemisphere.

Moving at high speeds and under great pressure, these rivers of magma feed tributary systems spanning vast distances, replete with streams, pools, lakes, and reservoirs.

The pools and lakes of magma in these tributary systems form under volcanoes, and the reservoirs form under supervolcanoes.

When volcanoes erupt, they function much as the release valve on the top of a pressure cooker. They vent excessive pressure caused by magma overflow, through the eruption.

What causes this pressure? More magma? Not likely. Rather, it is due to pressure from increased rates of magma flow velocity due to forces building deep up within the Earth. The causality is that Earth is in the early stages of a magnetic pole shift.

With this subset, the goal is to track swarms over time. We want to evaluate the possibility of a river of magma flowing around the edge of the Pacific Plate. We have designated three study areas.

North America Swarm Study Datasets

The three designated VLE swarms regions for this data subsets are China Lake, Alaska, and NW Territory regions.

USA Very Large Earthquake (VLE) Swarm Datasets

In the illustration above, you see screen captures with the designated areas and their geographic boundaries coordinates.

With this in mind, let’s see the numbers for our three regions for the month of October 2019.

All Earthquakes for VLE Swarm Study Regions

China Lake continues to show subsiding swarm activity. When you compare that with the data against the historical activity, we’re still in the red zone.

China Lake Dataset All Earthquakes - 1/2017 to 10/2019

With Alaska, the statistical reduction for October 2019 is signifcant.  It will be interesting to follow this region to see if there is a return of noticeable swarm activity.

Alaska Dataset All Earthquakes - 1/2017 to 10/2019

As with Alaska, the Northwest Territory data for October shows a similar, statistically significant drop.

NW Territory Dataset All Earthquakes - 1/2017 to 10/2019

When we study the three VLE swarm datasets, from South to North.   China Lake is the furthest South VLE region which continues to show a significant level of activity, although October is the fourth month of a subsiding trend.  Further North of China Lake is the NW Territory and further North of China Lake is the Alaska VLE swarm region.

The J.P. Jones Magma Rivers Hypothesis describes the flow of magma from the Southern hemisphere towards the North Pole.  Assuming that the closer to the equator you are, the stronger the magma velocity will be, the data we’re seeing for October is consistent with the proximity to the equator for China Lake vs. the other two VLE regions.

Now let’s compare these North America datasets against worldwide totals by year.


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USA VLE Swarms vs. Worldwide

The following 3-D slide presents the data for all earthquakes, including swarms for January through October of this year.

2019 USA VLE Swarms vs Worldwide Totals - 1/2017 to 10/2019

As noted above, we’re seeing mixed VLE swarm data for the three regions.  The 3-D slide shows that our study regions continue to subside at different levels for the period of July through October 2019.

With a more straightforward bar chart, we can see the comparative difference between the combined datasets and the worldwide numbers.

2019 VLE Swarm Datasets vs Worldwide Totals - 1/2017 to 10/2019

What we see here is that VLE swarms as a percentage of all earthquakes worldwide are returning to the same difference levels as of January through June of this year.

Initial Findings for October 2019

What we’re seeing here is that the Hawaii VLE swarms of 2019 and the three regions we’ve been tracking along the North American West Coast are now showing the following two initial findings:

  • Equatorial Proximity:  The datasets show us that the closer to the equator a VLE swarm region is, the intense the events will be and the further north of the Equator you go, the faster the VLE swam subside.
  • Swarms are Summer Events:  Peak VLE swarm activity for 2018 and 2019 occurred in the months of June and July.  Is this about solar luminance, or, is this the point in Earth’s orbit around the sun, where it encounters something never seen before – officially speaking that is?

As we go into the holiday season, new patterns emerged in October to describe what is happening below our feet and above our heads. Is this good, bad, or otherwise?  Too early to tell, but one thing is for sure.  If we take into account all that has happened since December 21, 2102, it has never stopped trending upward for the worse.

Resolve to spend quality time with your loved ones this year.  Enjoy the 2019 holiday, because there may not be much of one in 2020.

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