Signs 42 – Beware of Falling Rocks

| September 18, 2019

Signs 42 – Beware of Falling Rocks

In terms of fireballs and earthquakes, August 2019 was a record-breaking month. Of the two trends, the more disturbing (and they’re both awful) last month was fireballs.

Also, we saw two more very large earthquake (VLE) swarms, and this confirms a pattern dating back to the VLE swarms in Hawaii.

Another new development are purple Purple sunsets from volcanic dust. On one hand, beautiful.  On the other, ominous.

There are other signs of what is to come as well and we’ll discuss them in this article so let’s get into it.

August 2019 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs Jan 2015 to Aug 2019

When you examine the overall pattern for this year through August, a consistent pattern emerges.  So far, 2019 exceeds or meets the same monthly figures for 2017 and 2018, with the exception of February.  It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year unfolds for this dataset.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball even


AMS Huge Event Fireballs Jan 2015 to Aug 2019

August has been a consistent month for this data subset as has February. From now till December, overall activity picked up for all datasets. If we see a sudden spike with this one, it will be an ominous sign.


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AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for August 2019, we continue to see the single most significant increase from one year to the next, going back to 2015.

AMS Montlhly Total Fireballs Jan 2015 to Aug 2019

The AMS Monthly Total Fireballs for January through August of this year is the highest on record for this subset period, for all of recorded modern history. Worse yet, we’re seeing an unbroken train of new records.

AMS Total Yearly Fireballs

The total number of reported fireballs of all sizes is where the big picture moves from monthly to yearly, and here the news is that we’ve crossed another threshold.  Not good.


AMS Yearly Fireball Totals - 1/2011 to 8/2019

With August 2019 we see that the yearly fireball totals for the first eight months of this year offering a stunning result. The first eight months of 2019 roughly equals the total number of 2015 and is well above of 2011 through 2014.

We are entering the time of a future “city-killer” if we haven’t already crossed that threshold.

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997. The updated spreadsheet below has been updated with the August 2019 results.

Earthquakes Worldwide From Jan 1997 to Aug 2019

Just to put this slide in perspective.  Focus on six cells in this table.  June through August of 2018 and June through August of 2019.  See them as a single block. Now try and find anything resembling it anywhere in the table.

In reviewing the numbers, J.P. Jones found that the 2018 Hawaii earthquake swarms were so statistically massive that it actually skewed the overall data and when he removed the 2018 Hawaii earthquake swarms from the dataset, the trends normalized. In July, the dataset was skewed by the China Lake Ridgecrest VLE swarms and this month, there were two new, smaller swarms in California and Alaska.

Earthquakes Worldwide From Jan 1997 to Aug 2019

Without the statistical distortion of the 2018 Hawaii and the 2019 China Lake Ridgecrest VLE swarms, we a revealing picture. May 2018 was the month that very large earthquake swarms began distorting the data. In other words, we are at an entirely new level of global seismic activity. B.Y.J.M. (Bring your own Jello mold.)

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2015 to 7/2019

When we look at annual global earthquakes for the dataset for January 2015 to August, 2019 including VLE swarm events, August is the nastly kid-brother to July.

Worldwide Monthly Earthquakes From Jan 2017 to Aug 2019

Without the statistical distortion of the VLE swarms, we see a dramatic statistical shift.

Monthly Earthquakes Minus Swarms for Jan 2015 to Aug 2019

Here is an interesting thing to note. After the swarm events were removed from the data for this slide, August 2019 was still higher than August 2015.

Now let’s look at some other signs of what is to come.


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Other Signs of What Is To Come

A nagging question with numerical earthquake data is that it is abstract.  When it comes to something like this, we must all come from the Great State of Missouri, because we have this show me thing.  Okey-dokey., September 12, 2019
Taken by Dorothea Grolig on September 12, 2019 @ Vienna Woods, Lower Austria

PURPLE VOLCANIC SUNSETS: Almost 3 months after the Kirul Islands’ Raikoke volcano blasted a plume of sulfurous gas into the stratosphere, sunsets around the northern hemisphere are still turning purple. Dorothea Grolig photographed this example from the Vienna Woods of Lower Austria on Sept. 12th:

Purple Sunset

Why purple? Fine volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere scatter blue light which, when mixed with ordinary sunset red, produce a purple hue.

The effect is going strong so long after the eruption because Raikoke had help: On Aug. 3rd, New Guinea’s Ulawun volcano also punched through to the stratosphere, adding its own emissions to that of Raikoke.

There are over seventy erupting volcanoes around the world.  Expect to begin seeing purple sunsets more often as well as falling rocks.

Charlotte Observer, September 13, 2019
Boulder falls on Virginia highway after meteor lights up the night sky, confusing many

A vehicle crashed in the 14800 block of U.S. 360 in Chesterfield County, Virginia, after hitting this rock. The driver was not seriously injured. (Lt. Justin Aronson, photo)

Virginia Meteorite

A boulder came out of nowhere and landed on a Virginia highway overnight, leading to confusion when the timing followed widespread reports of a fireball streaking along the East Coast late Thursday.

The American Meteor Society says it received nearly 40 reports from people who saw a “fireball” over the Carolinas and Virginia, including callers from the Richmond area where the boulder fell.

Witnesses said the fireball appeared around 8 p.m. moving to the north, and dash cam video obtained by ABC11 showed it appeared on the horizon as a bright white ball with a tail of fire.

What you are seeing is a fragment from a more massive meteorite which impacted near the top of a nearby mountain. This fragment was thrown down the side of the mountain and came to rest on the road. An unfortunate woman drove into this meteorite. Her car flipped over, and she was severely injured.


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Back in 2017, the permafrost surrounding the doomsday seed vault.  The structure was flooded and then froze, but the seeds were unaffected.

Business Insider, May 29, 2017
The doomsday vault that’s supposed to store every known crop on the planet is in danger

Hidden about 400 feet inside a mountain on a remote island between mainland Norway and the North Pole, the vault stores valuable seeds from crops all over the world. It’s supposed to be protected and stay at a safe temperature to store all those seeds.

Doomsday Vault - Melting Permafrost

But extreme temperatures in the Arctic this winter — combined with heavy rain instead of snow — led to melting permafrost that gushed into the tunnel leading into the vault, according to a report in The Guardian, raising questions about whether the doomsday vault will survive a warming planet.

“It was not in our plans to think that the permafrost would not be there and that it would experience extreme weather like that,” Hege Njaa Aschim, an official in the Norweigan government, which controls the vault, told The Guardian. “A lot of water went into the start of the tunnel and then it froze to ice, so it was like a glacier when you went in.”

The water didn’t travel all the way down into the vault, which is still safe, and officials could chip all the ice out the entryway.

Consider all the expertise and money that went into planning this facility, Yet, they were blindsided by melting permafrost. The takeaway here is that humanity’s last known global supply of seeds are at risk, and this raises concern over how humanity will feed itself in difficult times. The concern is real, and the hunger stones tell us so.

Wikipedia, 2019
Hunger stones

A hunger stone (German: Hungerstein) is a type of hydrological landmark common in Central Europe. Hunger stones serve as famine memorials and warnings and were erected in Germany and in ethnic German settlements throughout Europe in the 15th through 19th centuries.

Hunger Stone

These stones were embedded into a river during droughts to mark the water level as a warning to future generations that they will have to endure famine-related hardships if the water sinks to this level again. One famous example in the Elbe river in Decín, Czech Republic, has “Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine” (lit. “If you see me, weep”) carved into it as a warning.

Many of these stones, featuring carvings or other artwork, were erected following the hunger crisis of 1816–1817 caused by the eruptions of the Tambora volcano.

We see them now, and as we look at the Earth about us, we’re weeping. A reckoning is coming but from where. Below or above?, August 30, 2019
The iconic Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico has received new NASA funding to serve as one of Earth’s asteroid guardians.

NASA awarded the University of Central Florida (UCF) — which oversees the Arecibo Observatory — a $19 million grant to observe and characterize near Earth objects that could pose a potential threat to the planet, or may be viable candidates for future space missions.

Arecibo Observatory

Asteroids that come within 5 million miles (8 million km) of Earth’s orbit are deemed potentially hazardous by NASA, with the agency keeping track of them just in case one asteroid does pose a threat to Earth in the future. That’s where the new grant comes in.

When it comes to funding, near Earth object (NEO) research has always ridden the hind teat. Now all of a sudden, NASA appropriates new funding for $19 to an existing program. For that much money, they could have financed a new observatory, but then, it would time to build one. Perhaps, NASA is writing a big check because they’re seeing the same things we’re reporting. Falling rocks and more are coming.

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Category: Signs

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