Planet X / Nibiru Flyby More Likely in 2012

YOWUSA.COM, 05-January-03
Jacco van der Worp and Janice Manning

Is there really a Nibiru and if so, where is it and when will it get here?  Even though these questions continue to dominate the web, a single clarion note has yet to ring out with soul-satisfying data as to when this event will happen, even though some web sites like ZetaTalk tell us it will happen this year.  Yet, the physics of celestial mechanics seem to favor a possible flyby date of 2012, which also happens to coincide with the end of the Mayan calendar.

Evidence Continues to Mount for an XKBO

If we take a holistic view of the many perturbations that are happening to the planets and moons within our own Solar system, discarding the possibility of an incoming Planet X-Class Kuiper Belt Object (XKBO) defies reason.  Frankly, something out there is upsetting the natural order of our Solar system whether it is Planet X, Nibiru or some other unknown XKBO.

Since our September update, new potential Planet X-Class Kuiper Belt (XKBO) type events have become public.  These events include a marked increase in volcanic eruption activity on Earth as discussed by Marshall Masters in his article, Threat of Catastrophic Earth Changes Quickens. 

Oddly enough, while earthquake activity is on Earth is relatively quiescent for the present, volcanic eruption activity on Earth seems to parallel similar phenomena elsewhere in our Solar system.  One such piece of recently reported evidence is the enormous eruption of the volcano, Surt, on Jupiter's moon, Io.

Massive Eruption on Io and
Double-peaked Solar Maximum

In February of 2001, the single biggest volcanic eruption on record was observed on the Jovian moon, Io.  Due to the length of time spent in analyzing the data on this eruption, the information was not released until November 2002.  

Three views of Io using adaptive optics on the Keck II telescope, juxtaposed with an image of the same hemisphere taken by the Galileo spacecraft. The Keck images were taken with three different filters and show a large eruption near the volcano Surt on Feb. 22, 2001. Credit: Franck Marchis/UC Berkeley 

UC Berkeley researchers
report exceptionally bright eruption on Io
UC Berkeley Campus News, 13 November 2002

By Robert Sanders, Media Relations

Berkeley - Routine monitoring of volcanic activity on Jupiter's moon Io, now possible through advanced adaptive optics on the Keck II telescope in Hawaii, has turned up the largest eruption to date on Io's surface or in the solar system.

The eruption took place in February 2001, though a team of University of California, Berkeley, astronomers, only recently completed image analysis.  The group was co-led by postdoctoral research associate Franck Marchis and Imke de Pater, professor of astronomy and of earth and planetary science.

"This eruption is truly massive," said Ashley Davies, PhD, a scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory who aided in modeling the eruption. "The observed energy indicates the presence of a vigorous, high-temperature volcanic eruption. The kind of eruption to produce this thermal signature has incandescent fire fountains of molten lava which are kilometers high, propelled at great speed out of the ground by expanding gases, accompanied by extensive lava flows on the surface."

If one looks at this eruption in the timeframe of recent solar activity and compares it to that solar activity, the two events would seem unrelated at first, but upon closer view, they are probably not unrelated at all.

NASA Science News, January 18, 2002
The Resurgent Sun

Evidence is mounting that some solar cycles are double-peaked. The ongoing solar maximum may itself be a double -- and the second peak has arrived.

January 18, 2002: Every 11 years solar activity reaches a fever pitch: Solar flares erupt near sunspots on a daily basis. Coronal mass ejections, billion-ton clouds of magnetized gas, fly away from the Sun and buffet the planets. Even the Sun's awesome magnetic field -- as large as the solar system itself -- grows unstable and flips. It's a turbulent time called Solar Max.

Sunspot counts for the current solar cycle peaked in mid-2000 and again in late 2001. Image courtesy David Hathaway, NASA/MSFC.

During solar maximum, magnetic fields above the Sun's surface become impressively tangled, particularly near sunspots. Twisted magnetic fields -- stretched like taut rubber bands -- can snap back and explode, powering solar flares and coronal mass ejections.

Sunspots are the most visible sign of those complex magnetic fields -- but not the only one. Another sign is solar radio emissions, which come from hot gas trapped in magnetic loops. "The radio Sun is even brighter now than it was in 2000," says Hathaway. By the radio standard, this second peak is larger than the first.

The current solar maximum is double-peaked; the relative quiet between its two peaks fell between March and April of 2001.  The first peak's violent energy that accumulated may have been what triggered the eruption on Io, but only after the first Solar peak slowed. 

If that is indeed the case, we may see further volcanic activity at that distance from the Sun within the next several months, as the current Solar maximum finally seems to be moving towards its end.

Along with the double-peaked Solar Maximum, one needs to consider the radical change in global weather patterns.  Could this present double-peaked solar maximum partly responsible for the current El Niño?

El Niño, Part Deux

Like the Terminator, the El Niño phenomonen has made good on its promise — "I'll be back."  And it has, with a vengence.  According to current measurements, it appears this new El Niño will be strong.  Therefore, we must prepare for extreme weather around the globe, which is sure to bring great trouble and damage with it. (El Niño is a recurring phenomenon, it is there every 5-7 years, has been so for over half a century. So I doubt this paragraphs shows we have even basic knowledge of the phenomenon. I would reformulate or kick this altogether.)

U.S. Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration
El Niño Page, Sunday December 22, 2002

El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe.

NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has primary responsibilities for providing forecasts to the Nation, and a leadership role in sponsoring El Niño observations and research.

We need to keep track the current El Niño as it develops, as it disturbs most weather patterns around the globe.  Please note, CNN has devoted a section of their web page to providing information about the phenomenon.

While we know that theEl Niño is drving foul weather across our skies, what about the ground beneath us? 

Volcanic Quakes Fall
Through the Statistical Cracks

At present, the numbers for volcanic eruptions are up and major earthquakes are down. What gives? Is this disparity a fluke of nature or a matter of perception?  Good question. Let's start on the earthquake side with the USGS.

The USGS monitors quakes worldwide.  Below an excerpt of statistics from their web site:

US Geological Survey, Nov. 20 2002
Earthquake Facts and Statistics

The USGS estimates that several million earthquakes occur in the world each year.  Many go undetected because they hit remote areas or have very small magnitudes.  The NEIC now locates about 50 earthquakes each day, or about 20,000 a year.

Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 1990 - 2002
Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center 

This table was last updated on November 20, 2002, so at about 88% of the year 2002.  It appears from these statistics even though they are not yet complete for the year, that 2002 will not be a particularly active year, rather a quiet one.

At first glance, this forms a bit of a contrast to the increase in volcanic activity discussed by Marshall Masters in his article Threat of Catastrophic Earth Changes Quickens. But is it really a matter of contrast versus that of context?

Consider the following: Measuring quakes close to active volcanoes is difficult at best, consequently many of those will not be registered.  Furthermore, most of the quakes that accompany a volcanic eruption regerister below 5.0 on the Richter scale.  Therefore, two 5 pointers for each volcanic eruption would constitute a minor portion of the total of roughly a thousand in USGS table above, given the current average of 50 volcanic eruptions a year.

If you expand this, an increase of twenty such volcanic eruptions would make it a 40% increase for volcanoes, but only a 4% or less increase in the 5.0-5.9 section of the quake overview.

In the final analysis, volcanic quakes (that fall below the reporting threshold) just disappear in the flood. Hence, the seeming lack of relation between quake and volcanic activity.