La Palma Tsunami – Critical Indicators

| October 17, 2021
La Palma Volcano EruptionThis is now the 29th day of the ongoing eruption at La Palma, which has lasted 6 days longer than the 1971 eruption and this beast is gaining strength and so the question now is, where is it going? We’ve spent considerable time on the Internet and what we’re finding in the available reporting is widespread and inconsistent use of terms that makes it difficult to get a bead on things and “official” couching to suppress a panic. This raises a critical question.  How can the average citizen cut through this ash-laden fog for a simpler way to analyze the available video reports coming in each day? Here, we have chosen to follow the methodology implemented for our Signs series and how we’ve used historical data to help define recognizable and significant patterns in Earthquakes.  I present these in each of my weekly Planet X Conference zoom meetings. In this installment, I will share with you the critical indicators the research team is currently monitoring.  We also present the assumptions upon which our method is based, to help us understand what we’re seeing, so, let’s get into it.

Live Feeds from La Palma

Unlike previous installments where we present local reporting,  we’ll begin this article with two live feeds from La Palma as the method we present is designed for live feed monitoring.
LanzaroteWebcam, 17-Oct-2021 LIVE La Palma volcano Eruption, Canary Islands Spain
  This Live Stream shows the active Volcano Eruption from La Palma Island that began the past Sunday, September 19th. Live weather data are from a weather station in Tacande and refreshing per minute.
This live stream from LanzaroteWebcam began on October 8, 2021, and we appreciate the camera quality of this fee.  Another live feed we monitor is from Get Solutions.
Get Solutions, 17-Oct-2021 Volcano Eruption La Palma LIVE 17.10.21
  Volcano Eruption La Palma. La Palma island reveals lava rivers spilling from the island’s Cumbre Vieja volcano as its devastating eruption shows no signs of stopping nearly a month after it began.
These two feeds offer different views of current volcanism on the Island of La Palma.  As other feeds become available, we will follow them as well.  Now let’s look at the study assumptions.

La Palma Observation Study Assumptions

Please bear in mind, we are not paid scientists or MSM talking head experts.  We’re citizen researchers and journalists with a singular goal in mind.  That being, to know when Americans need to get the hell away from the East Coast. With this in mind, the research team designed the following three types of assumptions for our ongoing study.

General Terminology

We searched and searched for any useful side view illustrations of  Cumbre Vieja volcano to no avail.  So we decided to focus on the five main terms we identified as shown below. Volcano Terms Assumptions The terms used to describe these features of the volcano vary, but these simple terms are sufficient for our study as they relate directly to our immediate concern.  The ongoing earthquakes have now exceeded a magnitude of 4.0 in the last few days.

Earthquake Magnitude and Depth

As is often noted in La Palma video reporting, scientists have not formally announced a direct relationship between the magnitude and depth of the earthquakes occurring around the Cumbre Vieja volcano.  For the purpose of our study, we’ve created the following two simple assumptions.   Magnitude and Depth Assumptions The earthquakes we note with interest are occurring at a depth of over 30 km.  However, the ones we dread are the shallow quakes.  This is consistent with the comments made by Bushcraft Bear in his video reporting as well.   We call these shallow quakes the choke points. Choke-Point Observation AssumptionsWhat constitutes a chock point?   A localized failure of the main conduit from above the magma chamber and below the throat of the volcano atop the main conduit.
  • Earthquakes Below Side Vent Channels:  We have begun seeing now at depths of less than 15 km.  When we see the main and side vents diminish without a reduction in the magnitude and depth of the earthquakes, it will likely be due to a catastrophic failure of the main conduit rising up from the magma chamber to the main vent.
  • Earthquakes Between Side Vent Channels:  If we see the main vent and higher side vent diminish without a reduction in the magnitude and depth of the earthquakes, whereas the lower vent becomes more active, it will likely be due to a catastrophic failure of the main conduit somewhere between the two side vents.   In a catastrophic eruption, the throat of the main vent and/or a side vent will blow vertically and/or sideways.
  • Earthquakes Above the Side Vent Channels:  If we see the main vent diminish without a reduction in the magnitude and depth of the earthquakes, with corresponding increases in both side vents, that will be the sum of all fears.   This catastrophic event will likely blow sideways, thus trigging a tsunami-generating block slide of the Western flank of the volcano. 
As the old saying goes, geology is about time and pressure.  As for us, we’re running out of time as the pressure to act builds, so even simplistic terms and assumptions are a big step up from official “no worries” pronouncements by scientists and politicians alike.  With this in mind, let’s examine the announcement that Cumbre Vieja volcano blew its cone early on in the eruption.

The Cone

When watching the live feeds and local video reports, what kind of critical information can gleam from the reporting if you know what to look for.  This is of concern because a vent Southeast of the cone that was active early on, went quiet but as of today is expelling ash and gas.  At present no magma as of this report. With this in mind, it is important to know the type of volcano.  Cumbre Vieja is a cinder cone stratovolcano.
Some View on the World, 16-Oct-2021 Lava ‘tsunami’ in La Palma La Palma, a volcanic ocean island located on the African Plate, has a large ridge made up of a complex of cinder cones that stretches north to south across the southern half of the island. Types of Volcanoes The Cumbre Vieja has a history of steady Strombolian eruptions (moderate bursts of expanding gases and cyclical or nearly continuous small lava ejections) from one or more vents. Since about 125,000 years ago (~125 ka), all subaerial eruptions on La Palma have been associated with the Cumbre Vieja, with eruptions ranging over the whole 25-kilometre-long ridge. Historical eruptions on the Cumbre Vieja occurred in 1470, 1585, 1646, 1677, 1712, 1949, 1971. Almost a month ago the volcano came back in the news.
In the study of volcanology, Strombolian eruptions are featured with relatively mild blasts, which begs the question.  What does “mild” look like?  This early BBC article gives us a peek.
BBC, September 26, 2021 Cumbre Vieja volcano cone collapsed and generates lava river The last few days have been marked by news coming from the Spanish island of La Palma about the Cumbre Vieja volcano. The latest news reveals that the Cumbre Vieja volcano cone has partially collapsed. La Palma and the Cumbre Vieja Volcano The revelation was made by Carlos Lorenzo, geologist at the Geological and Mining Institute of Spain. The Cumbre Vieja volcano continues to be one of the hottest topics in the world. Today, the volcano is even more active, having led to a partial collapse of the cone. After the fall of the cone was generated a new river of lava. Carlos Lorenzo he claimed to have observed the collapse, using drones, and said that this collapse created a “huge current of very large blocks” that are sliding down the slope towards the sea. This Saturday, experts confirmed that a new mouth of the volcano has opened, but west of the main focus. This joins two other mouths that had opened last Friday. According to data released by the Copernicus observation system, the lava moves at a speed between 60 and 80 meters per hour.
The BBC report does not mention what has happened to the remnants of the Cumbre Vieja volcano cone, but finding them is not difficult if you know what to look for. Cone Remains They are the chunks of rock and debris floating atop the magma as it races down to the sea as described in the following report by The 6th Generation.
THE 6 GENERATION, Oct 17, 2021 La Palma (Oct 17) Hot Lava Flows From Volcano Like a Tsunami and Carrying Huge Red Hot Rocks
  The pressure of magma that infiltrates the crust of Mount La Palma, magma erupts from the hills and releases lava without stopping. Lava burned trees and farmland, crossed and submerged highways and destroyed thousands of isolated homes. That evening, the government announced that 5,000 potentially dangerous people had been evacuated. Although the lahar hasn’t penetrated the more developed part of the nearby municipality of El Paso, “it’s kind of creeping into a fairly densely populated area,” Robinson said. The hope was that the current would avoid the area on its way out to sea, but even if it didn’t, the area had been evacuated, significantly reducing the chances of death. Thousands of people have been evacuated and at least 2000 houses destroyed by the eruption that occurred on September 20. Fortunately, no matter how long the eruption lasts, it shouldn’t damage the many astronomical telescopes at the island’s Roque de los Muchachos Observatory. Juan Carlos Pérez Arencibia, administrator of the observatory, said the facility was 11 miles north of the eruption site. Also, the observatory is located 7,900 feet above sea level, while lava emerges at 2,000 feet. Volcanic flank collapse is a real concern, and it is true that some of the flank collapse on the La Palma coast occurred thousands of years ago. But a study from 2021 found that under realistic modeling conditions, the most severe collapse could cause a tsunami as high as six feet along the western Atlantic coastline. The deformation network covers the area affected by the fault associated with the Septembr 19 eruption, a zone where the normal fault facing W shows a maximum vertical displacement of 4 m. Detailed mapping of eruption products shows that during the Septembr 19 eruption, fault displacement also had a westward component with downslope movement on the flanks of the volcano. La Palma is comparable in form and structure to the rest of the Canary Islands which have experienced large-scale slope failure. The steep topography, together with the prospect of future magma intrusion, raises concerns for the long-term stability of the Cumbre Vieja ridge.
In this article, we’re present a lot of information and the one thing we’re not finding is MSM coverage in America.  Why this is, is for you to decide, but more importantly, good people overseas are picking up the slack with superb reporting.  With this in mind, let’s take a look at a very good report for today so that we can apply the methods and assumptions presented in this installment.

Putting It All Together

Now that you have a basic set of terms to use and useful but general assumptions about the earthquakes now occurring on La Palma, use these tools to evaluate the following video of events unfolding on La Palma as of October 17, 2021.
American Ultimate News, Oct 17, 2021 Breaking News! La Palma Volcano Eruption continues at high Intensity After Huge Quake & Tsunami Lava
  The eruption continues with high lava effusion rates and strong ash emissions. Lava flows continue to advance at various fronts, in particular along the northern margin of the existing flow field, continuing to threaten La Laguna. According to the latest figure, lava has so far covered 742 hectares, damaged or destroyed 1,058 building, out of which 854 were residential. Volcanic tremor, as an indicator of magma flux, remains high and has increased a bit compared to the previous days. Most notably, lava advance has been occurring at 3 lava flow fronts. Among these, two active fronts remain south of La Laguna, which are likely to merge and could soon reach the sea as well. One of these lava flows surpassed the mountain of La Laguna yesterday and was reported to be fed by a channel where lava flows at speed of 1300 m per hour: A third active front that advanced towards the northwest is of particular concern. Yesterday, it had reached the El Cumplido road and slowly continued its path. Today, it continued moving through the industrial center of Tajuya and approaching the center of La Laguna, but it is hoped that topography will divert it more towards the west before reaching La Laguna’s center. Continued ash emissions, airport affected. At the vent, activity remains dominated by lava effusion with less explosions than before, although it still generates a plume rising to 4000 m altitude. Today, some ash fall reached the airport, affecting operations and the airspace between La Palma, La Gomera and the North of Tenerife. New vent southeast of cone. Yesterday, a new vent was reported to have appeared 300-300 m southeast of the main cone yesterday afternoon; according to new information, it was apparently an older vent active early on in the eruption that was reactivated, but decreased its activity again toda. It mainly emitted gas and ash, but apparently no or little lava flows.
If this article helped you to find deeper meaning in this excellent video report by American Ultimate News, and you live along America’s Eastern Seaboard, then congratulations.  Use this and be vigilant because one day, the last thing you’ll want to do is to be praying “feet don’t fail me now,” as you’re running away from an approaching wall of water. Rather, you’ll already be there as the “move along, nothing to see here” folks are involved in a different experience.  As in, how long can you tread water? Dear Readers, the goal of these articles is that may you never have to do this, but rather, you and your loved ones survive thanks to your diligent monitoring of events on the Island of La Palma. WWG1WGA
TO LEARN MORE In each of my weekly Planet X Conference zoom meetings, I discuss the consequences of a La Palma tsunami for America’s East Coast and offer tips and insights on what can be done to survive such a disaster. Also, for those interested, in 2007, Christopher P. Lock PhD, FSAI, FABI of the Osaka University of Foreign Studies, published a very academic look at the coming La Palma tsunami. I am making it freely available to the public through my new online store, Please be sure to visit the store and anonymously download this substantial PDF eBook for free today.

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Category: Earth

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