Super-storm Over
Europe?
YOWUSA.COM,
28-November-07
Jacco van der Worp, MSc
 Late-Breaking Piers Corbyn Alert
 English
astrophysicist Piers Corbyn has alarmed Europe with a predication for
a terrible super-storm to strike England, Netherlands, Germany,
Denmark and Sweden. In a startling development, windfinder.com a prestigious German weather forecasting site published computer
generated forecast models on Sunday, November 25, 2007. According to
their model, storm intensity would be equivalent to a category 2
hurricane.
Then
on Monday, they suddenly reversed themselves with a far more benign
forecast. While weather is highly changeable, how could a devastating
system slamming into North Europe turn into mild rains overnight?
The immediate answer one would expect from a pugnacious meteorologist
is that the weather is much like Hillary Clinton. It can change
position as fast as the polling results come in. However, those who
are foolish enough to buy that, could find themselves drowning like
rats.
Will
a devastating storm slam into Europe later this week as predicted by
Piers Corbyn? Maybe it will and maybe it will not, but that's not the
issue here. Besides, who would wish such a thing? The real point
here is that we are seeing a whole new kind of weather phenomenon and
weather forecasters like windfinder.com use models that are now
inherently flawed, because they rely on historical data that cannot
reflect the new reality of global warming weather.
Not
only is global warming weather becoming increasing violent and
unpredictable, these trends are increasing at a geometric rate due to
the new injection of positive feedback loops into modern weather
systems.
Meteorologists Need to Look Outside the Box
Given
the wildly unreliable performance of the windfinder.com computer
models, one fact becomes clearly self apparent. Establishment
meteorologists no longer have the right to mock and belittle the work
of Piers Corbyn. Simply put, their models are failing, so who are they to judge? This is why original
thinkers such as Piers Corbyn are of vital importance to keeping up
with the accelerating trends of global warming weather.
This is because as
global weather changes, more and more remarkable and unexpected
weather will strike almost without warning. It will become
increasingly important to watch the sources of weather predictions
and take warnings these sources give you into account.
Of course, we should
apply common sense to any prediction. Weather predictions will
always contain a factor of uncertainty, but some predictions catch
the eye and just do not let go of our thoughts once we've taken
notice of them. One such prediction is that made by an English
astrophysicist named Piers Corbyn.
Weather forecasting by Piers Corbyn
Piers Corbyn says he
can make long-term predictions of the weather based on studying solar
activity. Ever since he was young, he has been fascinated by the
weather. He has kept track of the weather since he was 15 years old.
At the age of 18 he
began to study astrophysics. As an astrophysicist, he made his first
long-term weather prediction in 1986. He based it on a theory he had
developed that links solar activity to the weather patterns on Earth.
He claims he can make long-term weather predictions with an accuracy
of over 70%.
He uses his information
to provide weather-dependent companies with information they can base
their actions on. His method of prediction stirs much controversy,
even though most agree he has a better than average statistical level
of accuracy.
Now towards the end of
October 2007, Corbyn published a prediction on his web site weatheraction.com that made news headlines across the UK and The
Netherlands. His prediction caused many worried people to call
national meteorological offices in both countries.
Corbyn's prediction
stated that a super-storm would hit both countries between November
24 and November 28, with sustained wind speeds of up to 160 km/h (100
mph) and gusts above 200 km/h (125 mph). It is not difficult to
imagine the worry that this prediction caused.
Corbyn made a second
prediction that a pre-taste of this super-storm, a storm with
extremely high levels of seawater, would hit on November 8 and 9.
This prediction has turned out to be correct. On November 9 the
movable water barriers, that form part of the coastal defense of the
eastern UK and The Netherlands, had to be closed against extreme
tides that came with a storm from the Northwest which battered the
North Sea region for several days.
Reaction to the Corbyn prediction
The
reactions to Corbyn's prediction were cynical at best. Officials from
the Dutch and English meteorological offices were all over each other
calling this prediction fear mongering and not based on any
scientific method. Corbyn was practically forced to take his
prediction down from his web site.
He
removed the prediction from his web page, but he stuck with his
warning whenever he was asked about it. He repeated it in several TV
interviews for both English and Dutch TV networks. (View a Dutch TV inteview. The intro is in Dutch, but Corbyn's on-camera appearance is in English.)
He
also added a nuance to the prediction, it would become a one-two
double blow, the first would hit the UK worst but not The
Netherlands. The second storm would in fact cause more damage in The
Netherlands. This might sound like watering it down; it doesn't.
Now, he talked about not one but two damaging storms hitting the
Northwest of Europe.
The
ridicule remained, but so did the worried calls to the official
weather forecasters. The only result was that they stopped talking
about any storm anywhere in the near future, but of course, that
doesn't mean they stopped monitoring the winds.
If Corbyn is Right - Death will Befall Europe
The Dutch
meteorological office (KNMI), uses as a source for its wind forecast
for The Netherlands a German organization called Windfinder. This
organization publishes its forecast mainly for people that go out
onto the water for sports like (wind-)surfers and kitesurfers. This
German website displayed a chilling development for the week between
Sunday November 25 and Sunday December 2, 2007 on the evening of
November 25.
Below are a few
snapshots as they appeared on the Windfinder website as they appeared on Sunday 26-Nov-07, for the United Kingdom. These forecast animations changed dramtically within hours. These snapshots from 26th, depict a
disturbing chain of events which, if it comes true, will almost
certainly claim human lives.
The first picture shows
the beginning of a storm developing out on the Atlantic Ocean, west
of Britain. The dates and times are shown above the pictures.
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The flags mean wind
speed and direction, the speed is indicated in knots. A long stripe
is 10 knots; a short one is 5. A triangle equals 50 knots. The wind
force is also indicated by colors.
The subsequent pictures
have intervals of three hours between them. These show a terrible
storm developing and rushing into the British Isles with devastating
force. The pictures of November 30, at 00:00 and 03:00 are especially
impressive. They predict wind velocities of up to 75 knots (nautical
miles, 1852 m). This equals 139 km/h wind speed, sustained. That is a
Category 1 hurricane, bordering on Category 2 (this starts at 152
km/h).
In only 24 hours, the
black area, where hurricane force winds occur with sustained wind
speeds of up to 140 km/h, is expected to come from about 400 km west
of Ireland to the North Sea, a distance of over 1000 km. Finally,
when it has entered into the North Sea, the storm is expected to die
off a little. In the mean time, the English Channel South of England
gets a strong storm, as well.
It does not end with
this. Almost immediately after this storm starts to die off across
the North Sea, another strong storm system comes rushing in from the
Northwest. This again brings winds up to 50 knots, or high 10
Beaufort with 95 km/h. It will slam in to Ireland and lose its force
there, while a broader but weaker wind field will move parallel to it
and hit the South of France. Only towards the evening of December 1
will things settle down again (the last two pictures are six hours
apart).
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