Signs 39 – Is There a Breaking Point?

| July 2, 2019

Signs 39 – Is There a Breaking Point?The numbers are in for June 2019, and forget about wondering if we are seeing an alarming trend taking shape with our fireball data, because there is something new and even more worrisome to ponder.

Now we have six solid months of record-breaking monthly fireball observations in all of recorded history, is there a breaking point?

We’ve been wondering about this since May 7, 2019, in our article Signs 35 – Those Darn Rocks we stated: “There is a new trend forming in the data that indicates that we could be passing through a dense outer ring of the Nemesis system.”  Well, forget maybe kiddos, we’re there.

All this and current world events prompted Yowusa.com researcher J.P. Jones to revisit our earthquake dataset that dates back to January 1997.  In reviewing the numbers, he found that the 2018 Hawaii earthquake swarms were so statically massive that they actually skewed the overall data going all the way back to 1997.

We’ll also take a look at the mounting numbers of disturbing harbinger signs worldwide.  Like Dorothoth said in the Wizard of Oz, “We’re Not in Kansas Anymore.”  With this in mind, let’s get into the numbers.

June 2019 Fireballs

Fireballs are reported worldwide, and the American Meteor Society which is the primary source for North America, for this dataset.

AMS Multistate / Country Fireballs

Multistate/country fireballs cross the borders of multiple states and countries. For this reason, this is a critical category in the dataset because of the distance these fireballs must travel to receive reports from across large geographic areas.

AMS Multistate Fireballs - Jan 2015 to June 2019

June 2019 is the second hightest month for 2015 through 2019.  However, the statistical difference between June 2017 and June 2019 is too narrow for a signficant reduction.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs

It is a commonplace occurrence for Multistate / Country Fireballs to be reported as huge events because a huge event occurs when 100 or more eyewitness observers report a huge fireball event.

AMS Huge Event Fireballs - Jan 2015 to June 2019

There were two huge fireball events reported in June of this year.  Is this a downward trend?  Too early to tell.  However, when you compare the first six months of this year with previous years in this dataset because the only years where there have consistently been huge, fireball reports are 2016 and 2019.  The other three years, 2015, 2017, 2018, are hit an miss.

 


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As we stated article Signs 35 – Those Darn Rocks: “The simple message is that we’re seeing more of these more massive fireballs now, which tells us that we’re well within a dense outer ring of the Nemesis cloud.”

AMS Monthly Total Fireballs

The monthly total fireballs are the most critical category in this dataset. When we look at the monthly total of fireballs for June 2019, we continue to see the single most significant increase from one year to the next, going back to 2015.

AMS Montly Fireballs - Jan 2011 to June 2019

The AMS Monthly Total Fireballs for January through June of this year is the highest on record for this subset period, for all of recorded modern history.

Worse yet, the second half of the year is always higher than the first half, and this begs a damn scary question, how high can we go?

AMS Total Yearly Fireballs

The total number of reported fireballs of all sizes is where the big picture moves from monthly to yearly, and here the news is (imagine the worst if you will).

AMS Yearly Fireballs - Jan 2011 to June 2019

With June 2019  we see that the yearly fireball totals for the first five months of this year offering a stunning result.  The first six months of 2019 exceeds the total number for all of 2011 and 2012. The question is, when the July numbers come in, will the first seven months of 2019 top all of 2013?

Earthquakes Since 1997

At the outset of our Signs series, J. P. Jones created a dataset spreadsheet that tracks the total number of earthquakes each month beginning with 1997. The updated spreadsheet below has been updated with the May 2019 results.

Monthly Earthquakes Jan 1997 to June 2019

In reviewing the numbers, J.P. Jones found that the 2018 Hawaii earthquake swarms were so statically massive that it actually skewed the overall data.  When he removed the 2018 Hawaii earthquake swarms from the dataset, what emerged is sobering, to say the least.

Monthly Earthquakes Jan 1997 to June 2019 (Minus the 2018 Hawaii Volcanic Swarm)

Without the statisitcal distortion of the 2018 Hawaii earthquake swarms, we see a far more serious picture.  One that lifts an entire range of values from February 2013 to present into the red zone.

Monthly Earthquakes 1/2015 to 3/2019

When we look at annual global earthquakes for the dataset for June, 2019 we see a clear dip in the statistical value for this month as compared with June 2018.

Monthly Earthquakes as of June 2019Without the statistical distortion of the 2018 Hawaii earthquake swarms, we see a more revealing series of statistics that puts June 2019 as the highest month on record for this period from 2015 to present.

Monthly Earthquakes as of June 2019 (Minus the 2018 Hawaii Volcanic Swarm)With the earquake dataset minus the 2018 Hawaii quake swarm anomaly, this month is not the higest on record for both observed fireballs and total earthquakes of all magnitiudes.


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For those of you who follow this series, please note, that in future installments of Signs, we’ll use this revised dataset without the 2018 Hawaii quake swarm anomaly.

Mounting Numbers of Harbinger Signs

When it comes to climate change, conservatives have dug in their normalcy heels for the sake of political gain.  Obviously, it is easier to ignore the problem than it is to fix it.  The same can be said of the crisis at the border where the Democrats are fomenting the crisis for political gain.

To hell with the politics.  We’re seeing more volcanic eruptions than ever before, and yes, the doggone climate is changing.

Watchers.news, June 28, 2019
High-level eruption at Manam volcano, ash to 15.2 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l., Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea Erruption on June 27A high-level eruption took place at Manam volcano, Papua New Guinea on June 27, 2019, after a period of increased seismic activity. The Aviation Color Code is Red.

According to locals, the eruption started with a ‘thundering noise’ around 15:00 UTC (01:00 local time, June 28). Satellite imagery acquired 22:00 UTC, June 27 indicated volcanic ash rising up to 12 km (40 000 feet) above sea level, drifting W.

By 23:35 UTC, ash cloud was rising up to 15 km (50 000 feet) a.s.l. It detached from the volcano by 07:00 UTC, June 28 and continued moving SW.

In our previous article, Signs 37 – Beta Taurid Stowaway Alert  we stated, “we’re seeing a merging of the Nemesis cloud and the Beta Taurid swarm.”

Bottom line, the vast volume of asteroid dust in the Beta Taurid stream is forcing noctilucent clouds below the Artic into regions where we should not be seeing these clouds. Could this account for the freak cold weather incident in Mexico on July 1, 2019.

Fox News, July 1, 2019
Freak hailstorm in Mexico buries cars, swamps streets in up to 5 feet of ice

One of Mexico’s largest cities was transformed into a scene straight out of winter Sunday when a freak hailstorm dropped a deluge of ice that left streets impassable and cars buried.

Guadalajara Hail Storm - July 1, 2019

The hailstorm in Guadalajara, located north of Mexico City, came after several days during which temperatures approached 90 degrees.

“I’ve never seen such scenes in Guadalajara,” State Governor Enrique Alfaro said on Twitter.

At the same time as Mexicans are digging their vehicles out of the frozen summer muck, it appears that Europeans are cooking in their own juices once again.

Businessinsider.com, June 28, 2019
‘Hell is coming’: Western Europe battles unprecedented heat wave as France records its highest temperature in history

  • Countries including France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and Portugal are experiencing a massive heat wave that began on Wednesday, with hot air coming from the Sahara.
  • Villevieille, a commune in southern France, was 45.1 degrees Celsius (113.18 degrees Fahrenheit) on Friday afternoon, smashing the country’s all-time temperature record. Many other national records have been broken.
  • The forecast is so intense that one Spanish meteorologist tweeted: “Hell is coming.”
  • Some 15,000 people in France died when temperatures hit similar heights in August 2003. At least five people have already died in France and Spain.

Western Europe is in the midst of an intense, dangerous, and possibly even deadly heat wave this week.

2019 Summer Heatwave in Europe

The southern French commune of Villevieille recorded a temperature of 45.1 degrees Celsius (113.18 degrees Fahrenheit), breaking the country’s all-time record.

The heat also set new temperature records in Germany and the Czech Republic this week. Other countries like Italy, Spain, and Portugal are also grappling with temperatures much higher than normal.

It’s not clear when the heat wave will end.

That last part, “It’s not clear when the heat wave will end,” is most unsettling given that we’re heading into July and then August and Europe is already topping the deadly 2003 heat wave that killed thousands.

CNN.com, June 30, 2019
Europe heat wave: France records its hottest ever temperature

France recorded its highest-ever temperature on Friday as continental Europe continues to struggle with an intense heat wave.

The mercury reached 45.9 degrees Celsius (114.6 Fahrenheit) in Gallargues-le-Montueux in the Gard department in southern France, according to the French national weather service Météo-France.

2019 Heatwave in Europe

This is 1.8 degrees higher than the previous record from 2003.

Around 4,000 French schools were closed on Friday and the opening hours of parks and public swimming pools were extended.

French authorities have taken a number of radical steps this week to prevent a repeat of the tragic consequences of the 2003 heat wave that left around 14,000 people dead.

Paris activated its heat emergency plan last weekend, put together in the aftermath of the 2003 heat wave. Cooling rooms were opened in some municipal buildings and mist showers were installed in the streets.

Again, we come back to the existential question.  Is there a breaking point?  If so, what will it look like, and not for someone else in some other part of the world?  What will it look like for America? A sobering thought indeed.

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Category: Signs

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