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Super-storm Over Europe?

YOWUSA.COM, 28-November-07
Jacco van der Worp, MSc

Late-Breaking Piers Corbyn Alert

WEATHER WARNING NEWS UPDATE Sat 1st Dec WITH MAPs & Links damaging Sea Swell and winds on the way for England, North France, Belgium, Netherlands, NW Germany, Denmark

WEATHER DANGER WARNING UPDATE 29th Nov WITH MAPs - SERIOUS DAMAGING 'Superstorm' on the way for Britain, Scandinavia Denmark Germany Netherlands Belgium....

DANGER WARNING UPDATE 28th Nov 2007 - SERIOUS DAMAGING 'Superstorm' on the way this week for Britain, Scandinavia and strong winds Germany Holland & Belgium

English astrophysicist Piers Corbyn has alarmed Europe with a predication for a terrible super-storm to strike England, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Sweden. In a startling development, windfinder.com a prestigious German weather forecasting site published computer generated forecast models on Sunday, November 25, 2007. According to their model, storm intensity would be equivalent to a category 2 hurricane.

Then on Monday, they suddenly reversed themselves with a far more benign forecast. While weather is highly changeable, how could a devastating system slamming into North Europe turn into mild rains overnight? The immediate answer one would expect from a pugnacious meteorologist is that the weather is much like Hillary Clinton. It can change position as fast as the polling results come in. However, those who are foolish enough to buy that, could find themselves drowning like rats.

Will a devastating storm slam into Europe later this week as predicted by Piers Corbyn? Maybe it will and maybe it will not, but that's not the issue here. Besides, who would wish such a thing? The real point here is that we are seeing a whole new kind of weather phenomenon and weather forecasters like windfinder.com use models that are now inherently flawed, because they rely on historical data that cannot reflect the new reality of global warming weather.

Not only is global warming weather becoming increasing violent and unpredictable, these trends are increasing at a geometric rate due to the new injection of positive feedback loops into modern weather systems.

Meteorologists Need to Look Outside the Box

Given the wildly unreliable performance of the windfinder.com computer models, one fact becomes clearly self apparent. Establishment meteorologists no longer have the right to mock and belittle the work of Piers Corbyn. Simply put, their models are failing, so who are they to judge? This is why original thinkers such as Piers Corbyn are of vital importance to keeping up with the accelerating trends of global warming weather.

This is because as global weather changes, more and more remarkable and unexpected weather will strike almost without warning. It will become increasingly important to watch the sources of weather predictions and take warnings these sources give you into account.

Of course, we should apply common sense to any prediction. Weather predictions will always contain a factor of uncertainty, but some predictions catch the eye and just do not let go of our thoughts once we've taken notice of them. One such prediction is that made by an English astrophysicist named Piers Corbyn.

Weather forecasting by Piers Corbyn

Piers Corbyn says he can make long-term predictions of the weather based on studying solar activity. Ever since he was young, he has been fascinated by the weather. He has kept track of the weather since he was 15 years old.

At the age of 18 he began to study astrophysics. As an astrophysicist, he made his first long-term weather prediction in 1986. He based it on a theory he had developed that links solar activity to the weather patterns on Earth. He claims he can make long-term weather predictions with an accuracy of over 70%.

He uses his information to provide weather-dependent companies with information they can base their actions on. His method of prediction stirs much controversy, even though most agree he has a better than average statistical level of accuracy.

Now towards the end of October 2007, Corbyn published a prediction on his web site weatheraction.com that made news headlines across the UK and The Netherlands. His prediction caused many worried people to call national meteorological offices in both countries.

Corbyn's prediction stated that a super-storm would hit both countries between November 24 and November 28, with sustained wind speeds of up to 160 km/h (100 mph) and gusts above 200 km/h (125 mph). It is not difficult to imagine the worry that this prediction caused.

Corbyn made a second prediction that a pre-taste of this super-storm, a storm with extremely high levels of seawater, would hit on November 8 and 9. This prediction has turned out to be correct. On November 9 the movable water barriers, that form part of the coastal defense of the eastern UK and The Netherlands, had to be closed against extreme tides that came with a storm from the Northwest which battered the North Sea region for several days.

Reaction to the Corbyn prediction

The reactions to Corbyn's prediction were cynical at best. Officials from the Dutch and English meteorological offices were all over each other calling this prediction fear mongering and not based on any scientific method. Corbyn was practically forced to take his prediction down from his web site.

He removed the prediction from his web page, but he stuck with his warning whenever he was asked about it. He repeated it in several TV interviews for both English and Dutch TV networks. (View a Dutch TV inteview. The intro is in Dutch, but Corbyn's on-camera appearance is in English.)

He also added a nuance to the prediction, it would become a one-two double blow, the first would hit the UK worst but not The Netherlands. The second storm would in fact cause more damage in The Netherlands. This might sound like watering it down; it doesn't. Now, he talked about not one but two damaging storms hitting the Northwest of Europe.

The ridicule remained, but so did the worried calls to the official weather forecasters. The only result was that they stopped talking about any storm anywhere in the near future, but of course, that doesn't mean they stopped monitoring the winds.

If Corbyn is Right - Death will Befall Europe

The Dutch meteorological office (KNMI), uses as a source for its wind forecast for The Netherlands a German organization called Windfinder. This organization publishes its forecast mainly for people that go out onto the water for sports like (wind-)surfers and kitesurfers. This German website displayed a chilling development for the week between Sunday November 25 and Sunday December 2, 2007 on the evening of November 25.

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Below are a few snapshots as they appeared on the Windfinder website as they appeared on Sunday 26-Nov-07, for the United Kingdom. These forecast animations changed dramtically within hours. These snapshots from 26th, depict a disturbing chain of events which, if it comes true, will almost certainly claim human lives.

The first picture shows the beginning of a storm developing out on the Atlantic Ocean, west of Britain. The dates and times are shown above the pictures.

The flags mean wind speed and direction, the speed is indicated in knots. A long stripe is 10 knots; a short one is 5. A triangle equals 50 knots. The wind force is also indicated by colors.

The subsequent pictures have intervals of three hours between them. These show a terrible storm developing and rushing into the British Isles with devastating force. The pictures of November 30, at 00:00 and 03:00 are especially impressive. They predict wind velocities of up to 75 knots (nautical miles, 1852 m). This equals 139 km/h wind speed, sustained. That is a Category 1 hurricane, bordering on Category 2 (this starts at 152 km/h).

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In only 24 hours, the black area, where hurricane force winds occur with sustained wind speeds of up to 140 km/h, is expected to come from about 400 km west of Ireland to the North Sea, a distance of over 1000 km. Finally, when it has entered into the North Sea, the storm is expected to die off a little. In the mean time, the English Channel South of England gets a strong storm, as well.

It does not end with this. Almost immediately after this storm starts to die off across the North Sea, another strong storm system comes rushing in from the Northwest. This again brings winds up to 50 knots, or high 10 Beaufort with 95 km/h. It will slam in to Ireland and lose its force there, while a broader but weaker wind field will move parallel to it and hit the South of France. Only towards the evening of December 1 will things settle down again (the last two pictures are six hours apart).

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